Egypt Posts Fastest Quarterly Growth in 3 Years

Egypt recorded its strongest quarterly GDP growth in over three years, defying regional volatility and global economic headwinds. 

This marks the highest quarterly performance since 2022, underscoring the resilience of the Egyptian economy amid ongoing reform, shifting monetary policy, and a volatile external environment.

According to figures shared by the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development, GDP expanded by 5% in Q4 of the 2024/25 fiscal year, lifting the annual growth rate to 4.4%, notably surpassing the official government target of 4.2%.

“This growth didn’t happen by chance, it’s the result of disciplined fiscal management, an aggressive export strategy, and strong remittance inflows,” a senior government source told CNN..

Egypt's economic engine appears to be firing on multiple fronts:

Engineering and industrial exports surged by 11.77% in the first eight months of 2025, reaching $4.19 billion, a key win for the government’s localization and import-substitution strategies.

Remittances from Egyptians abroad soared nearly 50% year-on-year, hitting $23.2 billion by the end of July. Sources at the Ministry of Finance attribute this surge to currency repatriation following EGP stabilization and more competitive exchange rates in the official banking system.

Private sector recovery, particularly in construction, logistics, and tech, is outpacing projections, boosted by a series of investment incentives and regulatory streamlining in Q1 and Q2.

Egypt’s macroeconomic recovery has been bolstered by the unexpected resurgence of the Egyptian pound, which has strengthened steadily over the past several weeks. As of October 1, the official CBE rate stands at EGP 47.79 per USD (buy) and EGP 47.93 (sell), down from levels above 50 earlier this year.

Foreign investors have cautiously returned to Egyptian treasuries, while the narrowing gap between official and parallel exchange markets has reinstated confidence in the banking system, officials said.

Attention now turns to the Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee, set to meet Thursday. With inflation appearing to ease and the pound firming, there is speculation that the CBE could hold or even cut interest rates, a decision that could amplify domestic investment but risk reigniting inflation.

One senior economist at a Cairo-based investment firm described the moment as “a delicate balance between signaling confidence and avoiding overheating.”

Despite the upbeat data, challenges remain. Public debt levels are high, subsidy reforms remain politically sensitive, and the geopolitical climate, particularly in the Red Sea and Gaza — poses downside risks to trade and tourism.

“We’re seeing encouraging signs, but sustaining this growth into 2026 will require vigilance, especially in controlling public spending and attracting non-debt-based capital,” said an IMF official familiar with Egypt’s ongoing reform track.