Egypt in 2019: Economic Reforms, Moving to New Administrative Capital

By: Nawal Sayed

CAIRO, Dec. 27 (SEE) - Observers have started forming their expectations on political and economic developments in Egypt as per the Arab and Islamic Worlds’ leader. In this report, SEE sheds some light on the most significant issues that would be interesting in 2019.

Economic Situation

Egypt will keep inaugurating dozens of projects as part of

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s economic reforms.

The economic file is the most significant, especially with the instability of inflation rates of 15.6% in November 2018 whereas it was 26.7% in November 2017. Besides, the government will continue its plan to reduce energy subsidy in the oil and electricity sectors.

Moreover, the Egyptian Grand Museum (GEM) is expected to be officially opened in 2020, which means the next year will witness intensive efforts to fulfill all the constructions.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi paid a visit to GEM and the Pyramids Plateau

at dawn Thursday  to inspect the work there.

Political Anticipations

In 2019, Egyptians will face noticeable political and

economic junctions most importantly is the transfer of headquarters of

ministries and the presidency to the new administrative capital (in eastern

Cairo).

Politically, the start will be with the constitution.

Vice-Director of “Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies” Dr. Amr

Hashem Rabia told Arab-Pan newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat that there were “serious

signs” showing inclination to amend the constitution next year.

There were statements made by prominent MPs, including

parliament speaker Ali Abdel Aal, revolving around “the lack of opposition to

amendment in general”, and that “the constitution was drafted in a transitional

period, and there should be revision of its texts”.

Article 140 of the Egyptian constitution states that: “The

President is elected for four years starting on the day following the end of

his predecessor, and it is not allowed to re-elect him except once”. Last June,

President Abdel Fattah Sisi swore the legal oath for a second term before the

Council of Representatives.

Researchers and politicians believe amendment of the

constitution and making presidential terms unlimited could “give President Sisi

the opportunity to continue the big projects he has inaugurated since he took

office”.

Others believe that “The four-year term is not enough to

carry out long-term projects”. Political sciences professor Moataz Bellah Abdel

Fattah agrees with this approach.

New Capital City

The anticipated change of the political shape

constitutionally and parliamentary in 2019 will be accompanied with another

change of the center of power, as with the end of the year, ministries and the

presidential headquarters will leave the historical capital of the country to

move to the “new administrative capital”, which is about 65 km away from Cairo

Downtown.

Economist Omar al-Sheneity estimated that the second half of

2019 will witness the first steps to pay the installments of funding and loans

Egypt obtained from several international authorities “not including the IMF”.

"Paying off these loans will be reflected naturally on

the state’s economic decisions, though not immediately in 2019," Sheneity

noted.

He also connected oil’s world price to the outcome of the

current faltering state and the anticipated decision of lifting fuel subsidy in

Egypt. “If the average world price of oil is between 50 and 60 US dollars for

barrel, Egypt will reduce subsidy once during the year, which is the likely

scenario”.

Egypt’s Foreign policy

Regarding international relations, Cairo’s foreign policy

next year will be based on achieving a “strategic goal” for the country,

represented by confirming and supporting its influence and presence in the

African depth.

Egypt will preside over the African Union in February 2019.

There are also a number of projects carried out by the

Egyptian Agency for Partnership for Development, and some Egyptian companies in

countries all over the continent will take a position on the map of events in

2019.

In another regard, negotiations regarding the Ethiopian

Renaissance Dam would witness some progress.

On the Arab level, expert in international relations, Dr.

Saeed al-Lawendy said Egyptian-Gulf cooperation, especially with Saudi and

Emirates, are “in permanent and constant development, and will continue in the

same approach in 2019”.

Lawendy added that the “Quartet alliance, which includes

Egypt, Saudi, Emirates and Bahrain, will remain intact in 2019, unless Doha

changes its policies. “It will be hard to achieve a breakthrough in the boycott

crisis”.

“Stances and practices of the Qatari regime indicate how

close it has become with Iran and Turkey. Besides, the Qatari regime has not

taken any measures to respond with Arab demands, calling upon it to stop

supporting terrorist entities, or interfering in internal affairs of

neighboring countries,” explained Lawendy.