Egypt Cuts Wheat Imports due to Rising Local Output, Higher Prices

Egypt’s wheat imports declined sharply in 2025 as higher global prices and a surge in domestic production reduced the country’s reliance on overseas supplies, according to an official document reviewed by Bloomberg.

Total wheat imports fell by 8% year on year to 13.2 million tonnes, marking a notable shift for one of the world’s largest wheat buyers. The pullback reflects a combination of rising international prices, weaker local demand for non-subsidised bread, and a deliberate government push to expand domestic cultivation and procurement.

Global wheat prices climbed by about 6% in 2025, reaching an average of $250 per tonne, eroding demand in price-sensitive markets such as Egypt. At the same time, consumption of “fino” bread, a non-subsidised staple, declined amid pressure on household purchasing power, according to industry executives. The return of large numbers of Syrian and Sudanese refugees to their home countries also contributed to softer demand, traders said.

The contraction in imports is expected to continue into 2026, according to four people familiar with government planning, including senior officials, signalling a longer-term recalibration rather than a temporary dip.

The most pronounced decline came from the public sector. Government wheat imports dropped by 15% in 2025 to 4.5 million tonnes, a government official told Asharq, attributing the fall primarily to a sharp increase in locally sourced grain.

Egypt procured around 4 million tonnes of domestic wheat during the 2025 harvest season, up 18% from the previous year, according to official data. The Ministry of Supply aims to raise local procurement to 4.5–5 million tonnes in the upcoming season, Supply Minister Sherif Farouk has said.

Wheat planting in Egypt typically runs from mid-November to late January, with harvesting beginning in mid-April and continuing through July. Authorities have increasingly focused on boosting yields rather than simply expanding acreage, as water constraints and rising input costs limit the scope for horizontal expansion.

Egypt remains one of the world’s most influential wheat importers, with its buying patterns closely watched by global markets. In the 2023–2024 season, the country consumed more than 20 million tonnes of wheat, accounting for roughly 2.6% of global consumption, according to a US Department of Agriculture report published last October.

Despite the recent decline, Egypt’s wheat bill continues to weigh heavily on public finances, particularly given the central role of subsidised bread in the country’s social safety net. Any sustained reduction in imports therefore represents both a fiscal and strategic gain for the government.

Agriculture Minister Alaa Farouk said Egypt expects the wheat-planted area to expand by 13% this season to 3.5 million feddans (around 1.47 million hectares). He credited agricultural research and the development of higher-yield seed varieties for driving productivity gains.

“A 10% increase in yield on existing land is equivalent to adding one million feddans of new farmland,” Farouk said, underscoring the emphasis on efficiency over land expansion.

He added that Egypt successfully met demand from the tourism sector for wheat-based products last year while still reducing imports, pointing to new cultivation projects led by the Mostaqbal Misr (Future of Egypt) Agency.

In a surprise move in December 2024, Egypt transferred responsibility for wheat imports from the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), traditionally the state’s grain buyer, to the Mostaqbal Misr Agency, designating it as the sole importer.

The agency was established in 2022 by presidential decree and operates under the supervision of the Egyptian Air Force, though the founding decision was not published in the official gazette at the time. Officials argue the move will streamline procurement, reduce costs, and improve coordination between domestic production and imports.

The government says it remains committed to lowering Egypt’s wheat import bill through higher local procurement, expanded cultivation, and improved productivity, a strategy that appears to be gaining traction as economic pressures intensify and global food markets remain volatile.