Coffee Prices Mixed Amid Global Supply Concerns

Global coffee markets showed mixed movement on May 11, 2026, as supply concerns surrounding Robusta beans continued to support prices, while expectations of a strong Brazilian harvest weighed on Arabica futures.

Fears of another sharp rise in coffee prices have resurfaced across international commodity markets, with analysts warning that the possible return of the El Niño weather phenomenon could threaten crops in several of the world’s largest coffee-producing countries. 

Although prices have eased slightly in recent weeks, uncertainty over global production and climate volatility continues to dominate market sentiment.

In Vietnam’s domestic market, coffee prices edged lower in the Central Highlands, one of the world’s most important coffee-growing regions. 

Prices slipped by between 100 and 200 Vietnamese dong per kilogram, though they remained near historic highs in several areas, ranging between 86,300 and 87,100 dong per kilogram.

Dak Nong province recorded the highest purchasing price at 87,100 dong per kilogram, while Lam Dong posted the lowest level at 86,300 dong. Regional average prices stood near 87,000 dong per kilogram.

On the global front, Robusta coffee maintained strong momentum on the London exchange, supported by mounting concerns over tightening supplies after ICE-certified inventories dropped to their lowest level in more than 16 months.

Market pressure was also intensified by Vietnamese farmers holding back stocks in anticipation of further price increases, reducing immediate supply in international markets and pushing futures higher.

Meanwhile, Arabica prices faced downward pressure on the New York exchange amid forecasts of a strong harvest season in Brazil, driven by improved weather conditions and favorable crop development.

Market experts believe the global coffee industry is currently entering a highly sensitive phase, balancing short-term fears of supply shortages against longer-term concerns about potential oversupply as farmers expand cultivation to capitalize on record-high prices.

Analysts also warned that climate change and geopolitical instability remain major threats to the stability of the global coffee market, particularly as extreme weather events such as El Niño continue to affect key producing nations.