China to Lose 51 Million People by 2035

China is set to experience a dramatic population decline over the next decade, with projections showing a loss of 51 million people by 2035, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.

This reduction, which exceeds the population of California, is expected as the country grapples with a decreasing birth rate despite efforts from policymakers to reverse the trend.

Ada Li, Senior Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicts that China’s population will drop to 1.36 billion by 2035, a level not seen since 2012, down from a peak of 1.41 billion in 2021.

While there may be a temporary increase in births in 2024, as the "Year of the Dragon" is considered an auspicious time for childbirth, previous spikes in birth rates have been short-lived. 

Li notes that with marriage rates at historic lows, this year’s baby boom may not be a long-term trend.

The country faces an imminent demographic crisis, with the United Nations projecting that China’s population could halve by 2100.

Decades of policies limiting family growth, coupled with rising living costs and shifting social norms, have led to fewer women having children.

Meanwhile, a shrinking workforce and an aging population are placing immense pressure on China’s economy, pension systems, and healthcare infrastructure.

In a report published on Monday, Li stated that policymakers will likely accelerate reforms to tackle existing gender barriers to childbirth and family-building, which could include improving reproductive health services, and pediatric care, and easing the cost of childcare.

In recent years, Beijing has overhauled its birth policies. The one-child policy was abolished in 2016 and replaced with a two-child policy, which was later expanded in 2021 to encourage families to have up to three children. 

Local authorities have also considered various incentives, including cash payments for families, extended maternity and paternity leave, and even direct engagement with women to discuss fertility issues.

Over the next two decades, the number of deaths is expected to double the number of births. 

By 2040, the dependency ratio for seniors could reach 52%, meaning that there will be only two working-age individuals for every person over the age of 65, according to Bloomberg Intelligence projections.