Between Afghanistan and Sahel Region: The Harsh Reality 

United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and his French counterpart Florence Parly recently signed a new roadmap for cooperation between the two countries' special forces aimed at strengthening international efforts in the war against jihadists. This road map does not refer to a specific region, but rather to a general one, as the two countries are involved in the fight against jihadists in many regions, according to what the U.S. Pentagon spokesman said.

The signing of this agreement comes at a time when France is reducing its military presence in the Sahel region and the United States of America is withdrawing from Afghanistan.

Regarding the Sahel region, French President Emmanuel Macron said that France will begin closing its bases in northern Mali in the coming weeks and it will be completed by the beginning of 2022, in the context of reducing the number of French forces fighting extremists in the Sahel region. 

There are 5,100 French soldiers currently deployed in the Sahel region for eight years. This French presence cost Paris enormous material resources, in addition to the killing of 50 of them during various battles.

During a press conference following summit talks with leaders of the G5 Sahel countries to strengthen the fight against jihadist efforts in the region, Macron said that the closure of bases in Kidal, Tessalit and Timbuktu will be completed by the beginning of 2022. He pointed out that the process of closing the bases of the anti-jihadist Operation Barkhane force in the north of the country will begin in the "second half of 2021.

In Afghanistan, Taliban continues to advance in the town with the aim of seizing new areas and causing the collapse of the Afghan government after it imposed its control over areas in the northeast of the country. This comes at a time when the process of withdrawing American soldiers from this country is nearing its end. 

The process of evacuating all American soldiers in Afghanistan is expected to be completed by next September 11, according to the roadmap announced by President Joe Biden; But it seems that the end date of this evacuation is closer in time.

In turn, Germany announced the end of the process of withdrawing its military forces from Afghanistan, as did Italy, which confirmed that it had repatriated its soldiers to the homeland within the framework of the plan for the withdrawal of military forces of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

What is happening?

What exactly is happening in the new world order is that foreign military withdrawal in conflict countries has become a political base for many countries of the world, including the U.S. and France. This rule began to be known as its embodiment with the arrival of U.S. President Joe Biden to the throne of the White House. 

There is no strategic reason, for example, for the Americans to redeploy their forces in Afghanistan, because this would have constituted political suicide for Joe Biden. Also, with the presidential elections approaching and the situation in the Sahel region worsening, France led its president to take the decision to withdraw from the region.

What are the repercussions of all this?

The Sahel region will become a base for the massive attack and expansion of the jihadists linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS), especially since many of these areas are vast desert areas neglected by the central authorities due to their weakness and little human and material capabilities.

In Afghanistan, Taliban is currently testing the defense forces of the Kabul regime; Its goal is to control as many provinces and territories as to encircle the major cities. So far, it has succeeded in its plan, as evidenced by its control over large areas of the country. 

Since the beginning of the year, Taliban has controlled 70 districts out of the 370 districts in Afghanistan. It is more likely that it will isolate the cities and control all means of communication that connect these cities with each other in order to escape government control. If Taliban manage to take over these cities, it could lead to the collapse of the government.

The bottom line is that the return of extremist jihadists regionally and internationally is only a matter of time, and America, France and the major players in the global system know this very well. The next extremist groups will have vast areas, strong fighting teams specialized in local and international attacks, and large military equipment. Everything is developing very quickly, history repeats itself, unfortunately, and the world order will become hostage to the political interests of the major countries and the return of selfishness and the pernicious and dangerous strategic rules of play.

Contributed by Ahmad El-Assasy