Bank of America: 838 Million Jobs Globally at Risk from Generative AI

Nearly one in four jobs worldwide, equivalent to about 838 million positions, could be affected by generative artificial intelligence, according to a new analysis by Bank of America, drawing on data from the International Labour Organization.

The bank’s analysts, led by Benson Wu, found that younger workers, women, and highly educated employees are the most exposed to the disruptive effects of AI technologies. The findings highlight a shifting labor landscape as automation increasingly targets cognitive and non-routine tasks.

Exposure levels vary significantly across economies. High-income countries, where such knowledge-based roles are more prevalent, face the greatest risk, with 33.5% of jobs potentially impacted, compared to just 11% in low-income nations.

At the same time, wealthier economies are expected to reap the largest productivity gains from adopting AI. However, analysts caution that leading companies developing these technologies may capture a disproportionate share of the benefits, potentially widening economic inequality.

Despite widespread concerns about mass unemployment, economists note that historical precedents, from the Industrial Revolution to the rise of the internet, suggest that while technological change initially disrupts labor markets, it often leads to the creation of new types of jobs over time.

Still, other research, including studies by Goldman Sachs, points to longer-term challenges for displaced workers. Data tracking four decades of technological shifts indicates that affected workers typically take longer to find new employment and may face lasting income losses.

According to the study, re-employed workers see an average decline of about 3% in real wages, and over a ten-year period, their income growth lags behind peers by roughly 10 percentage points. This is partly attributed to “career downgrading,” where workers’ existing skills lose value, forcing them into lower-paying roles.