After Lebanon’s PM-designate Mustapha Adib stepped down, following his failure to form a new government, observers wondered if Beirut is stuck between the influence of Iran and Israel.
In an attempt to understand the political impasse in Lebanon, the stances and influence of Israel and Iran must be viewed first.
First: Lebanon's Hezbollah, Iran
Under Lebanon's sectarian political system, the prime minister post must be occupied by a Sunni, while the presidency is given to a Maronite Christian and speaker of parliament to a Shiite Muslim.
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Hezbollah leader delivering a speech (Archive)[/caption]
Adib faced problems in assigning someone to the position of finance minister because the country's main Shiite groups, Hezbollah and Amal, insisted on retaining hold of the key Finance Ministry.
The resignation deals a blow to French President Emmanuel Macron's efforts and initiative to form a Cabinet made up of independent specialists that could work on enacting reforms.
It’s said that Iran is urging its regional Shiite allies to wait till after the U.S. election.
Lebanese media reports speculated that Iran is behind the obstruction. Analysts believe that Tehran is counting on the results of the November U.S. presidential elections which Iran wishes Joe Biden good luck against incumbent President Donald Trump.
The pro-Iran Amal Movement leader and Speaker of the Parliament Nabih Berri wants the Ministry of Finance at a time when there is a shortage of money, and the international community is demanding the dismissal of those who are corrupt and the implementation of reforms to save the Lebanese economy.
Second: Lebanon's Likely Forced Peace with Israel
The daughter of Lebanese President Claudine Aoun sparked debate about Beirut’s normalization relations with Israel. Earlier, she affirmed her willingness for peace, adding that she would like to go to Jerusalem after solving the border issue and agreeing on a defense strategy.
The statements of the daughter of the Lebanese President Michel Aoun, and on the screen of the Free Patriotic Movement (OTV), sparked many interpretations about normalization with Israel.
While the Gulf community is following in the direction of "peace", Lebanon may be a fatal shock if it did it.
The president's daughter said in statements that seemed to some mined and motivated “ I am for peace with Israel, and I would like to go to Jerusalem.”
Claudine is the chairperson of the National Commission for Lebanese Women Affairs.
In related regards, Israel and Lebanon have reportedly agreed to launch high-level, direct talks aimed at demarcating a maritime border.
The talks will take place probably mid-October, and will be held at the headquarters of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in the southern Lebanese town of Naqoura, according to Israeli media reports.
Finally, Lebanon as an independent country has to consider all its foreign policies upon its national interests. However it’s said that Beirut is a captive to Tehran’s interests via Hezbollah and tied to Israel’s security needs.
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