Analysis: Iran Nuclear Deal... What World Powers Want from Vienna Talks?

Talks between Tehran and world powers are continuing in the Austrian capital Vienna to revive the Iran nuclear deal, after five months of suspension.

On Thursday, the Iranian foreign minister said that work to revive the nuclear agreement between his country and world powers was "at hand", but that it depended on the "goodwill of the West," according to the BBC.

Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian tweeted that negotiations in Vienna were "going seriously" and that lifting sanctions was a "primary priority".

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett on Thursday asked the United States for an "immediate halt" to talks on Iran's nuclear program during a phone call with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, his office said.

An Arabic-language statement issued by the Prime Minister's Office quoted Bennett as saying in the conversation that Tehran was engaged in "nuclear blackmail as one of the tactics for conducting negotiations, and that the appropriate response would be to stop the negotiations immediately and take strict steps by the great powers."

For Tehran, it is all about lifting sanctions.

To be fair, Iran has largely been respecting the terms of the JCPOA agreement, and it was Washington that unilaterally withdrew. So the Iranians want to lift all sanctions and focus on US commitments. But the messages seem puzzling, with some data indicating that they are not They are reluctant to return to the agreement, although they certainly will not expand the scope of the talks to cover missiles or their regional activities.

The United States will not attend the meeting, but its officials in Vienna will monitor it closely, according to the BBC report.

The Biden administration has seen that the talks in which some of the other parties to the agreement participated earlier this year were heading towards an understanding with Tehran. Washington supports a return to the agreement, and expects the new Iranian president to return to it after an appropriate period. But it appears to have misjudged Tehran's mood.

Despite its geographical distance from Vienna, its shadow largely hangs over the talks. Israel and Iran are arch enemies.

Tehran does not recognize Israel's right to exist, and many in Israel see Iran's nuclear program as an existential threat to them. Israel is already engaged in a deep, undeclared war with Iran and its proxies are in Syria, and this is what prompted it to expand the scope of its air strikes in recent weeks.

Prime Minister Naftali Bennett speaks sternly, stressing that his country will “reserve its right to freedom of action” with regard to Iran regardless of the outcome of the Vienna talks, asserting: “Israel is not a party to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which she is not bound by.

All this is very good, but there is a long-standing contradiction towards the nuclear deal in Israel. While the official approach seemed in line with the policy of former US President Donald Trump, many defense experts believe the deal is useful in constraining Iran's actions and delaying a possible war.

There may be some who still believe this. But Iran has used the transitional period to make significant progress, and Israel in turn judges Iran by its actions, not its words. The Israeli position suggests that there are potential tensions in the future with Biden's team, which many Israeli officials believe is keen to strike a deal with Tehran at any cost.

Despite their previous opposition to the Iran nuclear deal, many of Washington's Gulf allies have changed their minds. With Washington’s strategic focus now on China much more than the Middle East, many of its allies now believe that a reworked deal may be in their best interest.

The five European countries that sit around the negotiating table with Iran want a return to the full implementation of the agreement, along with the lifting of US sanctions on Tehran.

The Europeans played a crucial role in the series of meetings with senior Iranian officials, which brought the process to this stage. Indeed, Europe was instrumental in maintaining the agreement during the Trump years.

The French in particular were keen to stress that new talks with Iran should start from where the previous negotiations stopped last June, with the aim of quickly returning the agreement. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian recently warned Tehran against any "elusive" negotiating position.

Russia and China share goals with Western countries, as they want to see the Iranian nuclear deal resurrected, and are keen to avoid any renewed crisis in the region. But their relations with the United States are completely different from those of the Europeans, as both Moscow and Beijing realize Washington's declining focus on In the Middle East, they are looking for their own interests in the region, which makes them, to some extent, more sensitive to Tehran's concerns.

Iran is certainly keen to get closer to both; Moscow and Beijing.

Last September, Tehran was accepted into the Shanghai Cooperation Council, a grouping A regional link between Russia, China and many Central Asian countries, Pakistan and India. Iranians view this as an important part of their "go east" strategy to separate themselves from the United States and the West.

This fits perfectly with Russia and China's desire for a multipolar world; In essence, US global power is undermined, so Iran will eventually look to Moscow and Beijing to support if things become more difficult.

No one seems overly optimistic that a deal will be struck.

Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies says a return to the JCPOA agreement seems unlikely given Iran's unrealistic demands.

He adds that some parties will later consider military action the option. The only one left to prevent Iran from getting close to acquiring a nuclear bomb. But there could be a compromise.

“The US and Iran might go for a (less for less) solution, i.e. easing some sanctions in exchange for a cap on uranium enrichment.” Despite all its flaws, the JCPOA agreement has benefits. Without the reassurances of this agreement, the Middle East would undoubtedly be a much more dangerous place.

https://see.news/biden-middle-east-between-israels-hammer-irans-anvil/