By Dr. Abdelhak Azouzi
I recently had the privilege of participating in a distinguished meeting on the future of the global system organized by the special committee in charge of the kingdom’s new development model. The committee is chaired by Chakib Benmoussa, ambassador, a high-ranking and highly forward-looking statesman, and of high ethics and sincere patriotism.
Benmoussa was appointed by His Majesty King Mohamed VI. The committee comprises 35 members of various academic and professional tracks, in addition to its chairman. It is not a second government, or a parallel formal institution; rather, an advisory body; it has a mission to implement is specific in time.
Its task is a tripartite of evaluation, proactive and forward-looking mission, which aims at arriving at a pure Moroccan-Moroccan development model through a consultative approach that is confidently heading towards the future.
The committee includes national personalities from inside and outside Morocco in addition to talents and officials from the old generation, youth and women.
This committee focuses on researching and studying the present situation, frankly, boldly and objectively, in view of the achievements of the Kingdom of Morocco, the reforms that have been adopted, as well as the expectations of citizens, the current international context and its future developments.
In my discussion, I indicated some points such as the health crisis that the countries of the world are going through which is the largest in nearly a hundred years. Economic fallout may be the deepest since the Great Depression of the 1930’s in the United States.
Exact forecasting of the path out of this global crisis is not possible at the moment. However, there are a number of possible scenarios for this exit. The most optimistic scenario prophesizes that getting out of this crisis may be possible during the next three months.
It depends on the effectiveness of “social divergence” and the possibility of rapid progress in finding effective treatments for the injured. This scenario assumes that people may gradually start returning to their jobs, and that the economies of countries that suffered from recession, of course, will begin to recover in late 2020 and early 2021.
As for the darker scenario, the pandemic is expected to continue to spread for a period of no less than 12 months and may extend to 18 months. The bleak features linked to the pandemic will prevail until the discovery, trial, and distribution of a vaccine – as the isolation and closure policies continue to be applied.
This is likely to lead to an economic downturn in the United States and in other countries of the world, similar to the Great Depression of the thirties of the last century, and may have a great impact.
Depending on this bleak scenario, the economic recovery in the United States and other countries affecting the global economy may need a longer time, and this time may extend to 2022.
On the basis of this scenario, the social, political and security repercussions will result from high unemployment and increasing numbers. The destitute and the poor’s conditions can’t be accurately predicted at this moment.
I have also indicated that the international liberal order will become less liberal and less organized. A decline in the role of the United States may be one of the characteristics of the new world, although this decline has already started today.
Also, the next international system may include more national selfishness, trade protectionism, restrictions and control over the movement of people. Of course, globalization cannot be stopped, but it will enter in a narrow framework. With its rapidly growing and undeniable power, China will be Washington’s main challenge. As for the other developing economies, their position will be strengthened.
In my discussion, I also referred to the concept of power in the old international system, as it was distributed in a style similar to a complex three-dimensional chess game. On the upper chessboard, we find the military power unipolar to a large extent, and the United States retaining its supremacy.
On the middle chessboard, the multipolar economic powers have remained for more than a decade, and the main players are in particular the United States, Europe, Japan and China, along with others have an increasing importance.
On the lower chessboard, it is the field of transnational relations, and it includes actors who are not states, such as bankers who transfer money electronically, terrorists who trade in weapons, and hackers who threaten the electronic mail, and the challenges also include pandemics and climate change.
And on this lower board, we used to find that power is widespread, and it is unreasonable to talk in that period about unipolar or multi-polarity or control. I think that the lower chessboard will be what it will be and China and Russia will be seated. The two states may make that lower patch, the upper one influencing the new world order, as they will possess the other keys.
If it does not improve crisis management and build a new human future, failure in this challenge will lead to a great crisis between China and America.
Contributed by Ahmed Moamar.
