2nd Phase of Gaza Agreement: Progress and Challenges

The first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement concluded with the release of the seventh group of Israeli hostages on January 19, 2025. 

This stage, which ended ahead of the planned March 1 deadline, saw the liberation of six hostages. Attention now shifts to the second phase, which aims to establish a permanent ceasefire and facilitate the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

Hamas has expressed readiness to move forward, emphasizing its commitment to a comprehensive exchange that could lead to lasting peace and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops. However, the group warned against any attempts by Israel to avoid fulfilling the agreement's terms. Hamas insists that sincere negotiations and adherence to the accord are the only paths to returning detainees to their families.

On the other side, Israel has informed mediators of its desire to secure the release of 22 living hostages as part of the second phase. The Israeli government, however, has stated that the release of Palestinian prisoners will be delayed until Hamas ceases what it describes as "humiliating ceremonies" during the handover of Israeli hostages. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office confirmed that this delay aims to ensure the release of Israeli hostages without such displays.

Analysts highlight the complexities surrounding the second phase's implementation. Henry Ensher, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, noted a clear divergence between U.S. and Israeli interests. While the U.S. is focused on resolving the conflict to promote regional stability, Israel remains hesitant about a complete withdrawal from Gaza. Ensher suggests that the only viable path forward involves Hamas agreeing to a limited Israeli presence in the region.

Meanwhile, Dr. Saeed El-Zoghbi, a political science professor at Suez Canal University, interprets Israel's delay in releasing Palestinian prisoners as a strategic maneuver to postpone the second phase's execution. He believes the success of this stage hinges on Hamas's acceptance of Israeli conditions, notably the disarmament of Gaza. El-Zoghbi also noted that other Israeli demands, such as the expulsion of all Hamas leaders from the territory, could pose significant obstacles to advancing the peace process.

As the March 1 deadline approaches, the international community is urging both sides to honor their commitments and work towards a sustainable resolution to the conflict.

The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether the second phase can be implemented smoothly or if existing tensions will hinder progress.