Several momentous events occurred in the past year, 2024, in addition to major developments that strategic theorists and geopolitical analysts couldn't predict.
The top of these events was Israel’s destruction of Gaza, the restriction of Lebanon Hezbollah's abilities, and the assassination of its leaders, including Hassan Nasrallah, in addition to the movement's senior leaders; some of them were assassinated in lands the eyes of Israeli intelligence has never imagined such as Ismail Haneyah's assassination in Iran.
With this move, Israel and the US tested Iran’s response capabilities following these direct hits on its sovereignty. However, Iran’s strategic deterrence appeared limited after an ineffective retaliatory display.
Meanwhile, the war between Russia and Ukraine approached its fourth year. Recent months showed Moscow's progression, which has gained control of nearly 3000 square kilometers, particularly in the Donetsk region in southeastern Ukraine, despite Kyiv's intensified drone attacks, F-16 fighter jets arrival, US President Biden’s approval to strike the deep inside of Russia using long-range Western missiles.
On the other hand, European leaders are anxious about Donald Trump’s return to the White House as his arrival would completely alter the rules of US support and intervention for Ukraine, favoring Russian President Putin, who shares a strategic and intelligence-influenced vision with Trump.
Moreover, NATO would likely enter a phase of partial dormancy, as Trump's strategic belief prioritizes American interests above anything else. He was not elected to protect Europeans or allies but to ensure prosperity for the American people and fill the pockets of the citizens.
Furthermore, the two central European powers: France and Germany are witnessing severe domestic political crises, leaving Europe without its traditional driving forces, which could negatively impact European interests.
Meanwhile, Africa has begun shifting its traditional alliances and started viewing Russia and China as trusted partners while sidelining its former Western allies.
Before 2024 concluded, an unforeseen event shook the region which is the downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and his escape to Russia, where he entered a bitter retirement., after the country suffered from 13-plus years of civil war, and destruction. A war that claimed everything, leaving behind more than half a million lives and creating zones controlled by warring factions with differing loyalties, agendas, and interests.
All of this volatility, unpredictability, complexity, and ambiguity are characteristics that define today’s global landscape. Every region has major crises, some already ignited, others temporarily dormant, and some waiting for their turn. In many cases, local doers have a lack of strategic wisdom in addressing internal challenges and anticipating crises. This means a reflection of a failure to objectively assess the current environment and foresee the consequences of continuity versus change in a way that ensures national prosperity in the future.
Strategic wisdom aims to translate political objectives into tangible influences that shape the strategic environment in a preferred manner. It encompasses a broad vision that it is precise in execution. Strategy is concerned with the future and problem analysis, as well as preventing them. This mission leads to the accurate assessment of internal and external environments, identifying key strategic factors that must be addressed to safeguard national interests. This is an essential matter because the political leader who masters these fundamentals will succeed in governance and build a stable bridge for his people to cross safely. Without this, disaster is inevitable.
What if Bashar Al-Assad had the strategic wisdom during his 24-year run as president? What if he had allowed all political doers to participate in governance and share decision-making? What if he had relied on internal support rather than seeking power from external allies?
What if the Ukrainians had declared their country a neutral state, avoiding NATO membership and the geopolitical red lines that drove them into a war of bombs and missiles?
What if the planners of “Al-Aqsa Flood” had anticipated the consequences of the Israeli military response would be so limited to certain targets followed by agreements for Hamas, or a wider regional conflict drawing in global powers?
The world today needs strategic foresight with no chance for mistake or error and requires wisdom from doers to avoid future possible issues or solve them before it turns too late.
The strategic moment has a huge price. The current global order placed many regions on the edge of collapse, at risk of falling at any moment. The wise leader is the one who navigates away from disaster, strengthens internal stability, and builds balanced alliances rather than plunging into the unknown.
Translated by: Rana Atef
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