Gold prices in local markets declined by 1.8% during last week's trading, while the ounce rose on the global exchange by about 1.7%, supported by receding fears of escalating tensions in the Middle East, according to the weekly report issued by the "Marsad al-Dhahab" for Economic Studies.
Dr. Walid Farouk, a researcher in gold and jewelry affairs and director of the "Marsad al-Dhahab," stated that gold prices in the local market fell by about EGP 130 during the week ending yesterday evening, as the 21-karat gold gram opened trading at EGP 7,160 and concluded at EGP 7,030. Meanwhile, the 24-karat gold gram recorded about EGP 8,034, and the 18-karat reached EGP 6,026, while the price of the gold pound reached EGP 56,240.
On the other hand, the ounce rose on the global exchange by about $82 during the week, opening at $4,750 and touching the level of $4,900 before concluding the week at $4,832, according to World Gold Council data.
Gold prices had risen during yesterday's (Saturday) trading by about EGP 45, as the 21-karat gold gram opened trading at EGP 7,045 and closed at EGP 7,045, in light of the global market's weekly holiday.
Farouk explained that the decline in the dollar exchange rate in local markets contributed to the fall in gold prices despite the global rise of the ounce, as the dollar price in Egypt saw a noticeable decline during the final days of this April, breaking the EGP 54 barrier and dropping below the EGP 52 level in banks, driven by receding geopolitical tensions and the return of "hot money" inflows.
The "Marsad al-Dhahab" survey indicates that the Egyptian market is experiencing a state of relative contraction, with about 59% of traders reporting a decline in sales during the first quarter of 2026 amid a decline in commercial activity.
Conversely, a clear shift in the form of local demand is emerging, as about 92.6% of customers are turning toward purchasing bullion and gold coins for saving and investment purposes, accounting for about 88.9% of sales, compared to a sharp decline in demand for jewelry.
This shift reflects a redirection of liquidity within the market, driven by high and fluctuating prices and weak purchasing power, with 63% of consumers moving toward saving amid increasing caution and anticipation of price movements in the coming period.
Gold on the global exchange achieved gains for the fourth consecutive week, driven by receding fears of an escalating conflict in the Middle East, which led to a decline in the dollar and lower oil prices, calming inflation concerns.
Despite its status as a safe haven, gold has declined by about 10% since the start of the war, affected by expectations of monetary policy tightening and the strength of the US dollar.
The director of the "Marsad al-Dhahab" explained that recent geopolitical developments may contribute to reducing the risk premium and enhancing economic stability, thereby supporting the move toward monetary easing.
He added that the decline in tensions does not necessarily pressure gold but may give it indirect support by paving the way for interest rate cuts.
He pointed out that expectations of rate cuts are the most influential factor in supporting current prices, especially with indicators of a slowing labor market and declining services inflation, which strengthens the chances of a Federal Reserve policy shift.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that markets are pricing in a nearly 100% probability of keeping interest rates unchanged at the next meeting, with increasing expectations for a monetary easing trend in the medium term as inflationary pressures resulting from oil recede.
Gold's rise in the coming period depends on progress in the diplomatic path between the United States and Iran and the start of the interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, making the current stage one of the most complex periods in the gold market.
Markets are awaiting a package of important economic data, starting with US retail sales data for March, which reflects consumer strength, with expectations of a relative decline after the recent strong performance.
This data affects gold, as strong readings apply pressure by strengthening expectations for continued high interest rates, while weak data supports gold and silver prices. Eyes are also turned toward pending home sales data amid continued pressure on the housing sector due to high costs and interest rates, which may support gold if the data confirms weak activity.
In the same context, the Senate is holding a hearing regarding the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Chairman of the Federal Reserve amid expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy.
Markets are also following jobless claims data as an indicator of the labor market, which is still in a state of relative slowdown, as any significant rise in claims could support gold with increasing recession fears. Investors are also monitoring the Composite PMI along with the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, as weak confidence tends to support gold amid growing economic uncertainty.
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