World Gold Council Outlines Four Scenarios for Gold Prices in 2026 Amid Growing Global Uncertainty

The World Gold Council expects gold prices to move largely within a normal range next year, though it does not rule out sharp price spikes should the global economy experience a deeper slowdown accompanied by escalating geopolitical tensions.

In its latest report, titled “Gold Outlook 2026,” the World Gold Council outlined four scenarios for gold prices in the coming year, noting that gold delivered exceptional performance in 2025, posting more than 50 record highs and gains exceeding 60%.

The report stated that this extraordinary performance was driven by a tense geopolitical and economic environment, a weaker U.S. dollar, and greater monetary easing by major central banks, in addition to persistent strong demand from investors and central banks worldwide.

In the base case scenario for 2026, the council expects gold to remain within its natural trading range if current conditions persist. Markets currently estimate stable global economic growth of 2.7% to 2.8% in 2026, along with additional interest rate cuts of around 75 basis points by the Federal Reserve and a slight appreciation in the dollar.

In the second scenario, the council projects gold prices could rise by 5% to 15% next year from current levels if U.S. economic growth slows, risk appetite declines, and the Federal Reserve adopts a more aggressive pace of rate cuts.

The council explained, “This combination of lower interest rates and a weaker dollar, along with rising risk aversion, would create a persistently supportive environment for gold.”

In the third scenario, described as the “doom loop”, the council forecasts gold could rise by 15% to 30%, driven by a deeper global slowdown, falling yields, and intensifying geopolitical tensions that would increase safe-haven demand among investors.

The council emphasized that this mix of conditions would create extremely strong tailwinds for gold in the coming year.

In the bearish scenario, the council expects gold prices to decline by 5% to 20% in 2026 from current levels, should the global economy recover, supported by growth-oriented policies in the United States that could lead to a rebound in inflation, higher bond yields, and a stronger dollar.

It added, “Higher yields, a stronger dollar, and a shift toward risk assets would pressure gold prices,” noting that gold-backed ETFs could see sustained outflows in such a case, as investors shift toward equities and higher-yielding assets.

During the current year, global gold ETFs saw inflows of approximately USD 77 billion, adding over 700 tonnes to their holdings, according to the report.

Despite the possibility of price declines, investor demand is likely to remain resilient given increasing market volatility, the World Gold Council said, stressing that gold continues to offer portfolio diversification and downside protection in a world where shocks and surprises are becoming increasingly common.