World Bank Lifts Egypt’s Growth Outlook to 4.3% for FY2024/25

The World Bank raised its forecast for Egypt’s economic growth to 4.3% for the fiscal year 2024/25, a slight but notable increase from its previous projection of 4.2% issued in June. 

The updated outlook reflects growing optimism around Egypt’s recent economic reforms and improving macroeconomic indicators. The Bank also anticipates continued momentum, with GDP growth expected to reach 4.8% in the following fiscal year.

This positive revision comes as Egypt implements key structural reforms, including the unification of its exchange rate and a decline in inflation, despite lingering challenges such as elevated prices, subdued job creation, and ongoing pressure on both public finances and the external sector. 

According to the World Bank, real GDP growth picked up significantly in recent quarters, rising to 4.8% in the third quarter and 5% in the fourth quarter of the current fiscal year. This marks a strong rebound from the 2.2% and 2.4% growth rates recorded in the same quarters of the previous year, resulting in an annual average growth of 4.4%.

The recovery has been supported by macroeconomic stabilization efforts and a renewed wave of foreign support. Improved performance in exports, domestic consumption, and private sector investment have been key contributors to the economic rebound, along with the launch of large-scale projects funded by the United Arab Emirates. 

Nevertheless, public investment has remained relatively limited. The manufacturing sector outside the oil and gas industry has shown signs of revival following a relaxation of import restrictions, although issues persist in sectors such as the Suez Canal and extractive industries.

Urban inflation has eased to 12% as of August 2025, offering some relief after months of price pressures. 

At the same time, Egypt’s debt profile has shown signs of improvement. The ratio of public debt to GDP declined to 90.1% at the end of fiscal year 2023/24, while external public debt accounted for 27.3% of GDP. Foreign currency reserves climbed to $59.9 billion, and pressures on the parallel market have diminished, indicating a measure of financial stabilization.

Despite these gains, the World Bank warned that Egypt continues to face significant external financing needs, estimated at $20.3 billion during the second half of 2025.