Why Does Gold Continue to Rise? And Is Buying Still Worthwhile at These Price Levels?

Economic expert and gold market specialist Taher Morsi said that the historic gains currently seen in gold prices are not surprising, but rather the result of a long trajectory of economic and geopolitical shifts whose features began to take clear shape in 2019, as advanced economies entered a deep recession.

Morsi noted that this phase witnessed attempts to disrupt the global recovery path, using health crises as a cover to slow the progress of competing economies. He explained that when these tools failed, the global system moved into a more dangerous phase marked by escalating military conflicts and geopolitical tensions.

He added that the conflict hotspots he had warned about early on—such as Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Arctic—along with the potential expansion of tensions in the Middle East, have shifted from theoretical scenarios to pressing realities, creating an ideal environment for gold to emerge as a primary hedging instrument.

Morsi explained that the real historic opportunity to build wealth through gold had existed years ago, when the precious metal embarked on an unprecedented upward trajectory starting in early 2020, successfully breaking its previous all-time high of $1,922 per ounce, recorded in September 2011.

He pointed out that the most significant launch came in November 2022, in a clear contradiction to traditional economic theories, as gold continued to rise despite the sharp increase in U.S. dollar interest rates. This, he said, provided practical evidence that interest rates had lost their effectiveness as a tool for controlling economic crises.

Morsi stressed that monetary policies have lost their ability to contain structural imbalances, widening the confidence gap in the U.S. dollar itself and pushing many countries to seek alternatives to protect their reserves and hedge against the risks of the existing monetary system. Gold emerged as the biggest beneficiary of this shift, within what he described as a “soft coup” against the fiat system established after World War II.

He added that rising geopolitical risks, the accelerating arms race, and the declining effectiveness of international institutions have all strengthened gold’s upward momentum, amid eroding confidence in international law, weakening diplomatic solutions, and the growing perception of force as the primary means of resolving international disputes.

Morsi noted that within just one year, gold managed to surpass all levels once considered unrealistic, reaching the $3,000 and $4,000 per ounce ranges and approaching the $5,000 level, at a time when U.S. financial markets are experiencing unprecedented inflation in nominal asset values, supported by the Federal Reserve’s continued liquidity injections.

He explained that the ongoing postponement of a crisis eruption carries the greatest risk in U.S. economic history, warning that any potential collapse—whether it occurs or not—would be difficult to contain using traditional financial tools or by printing more dollars.

He added that the United States may find itself forced to bypass the rules of the current economic system and attempt to reshape it in a way that allows for debt restructuring, despite significant doubts about this path’s ability to deliver stability under current international conditions.

Should We Buy Gold Now?

Regarding the viability of buying at current levels, Taher Morsi said that high prices are not inherently ideal buying opportunities, whether in gold or in any real or financial asset. He emphasized that what appears expensive today may later be viewed as relatively low, but that alone does not constitute sufficient justification for aggressive market entry.

He explained that his analysis is based on a long-term strategic perspective, suitable for investments extending at least three years, and that looks beyond short-term price fluctuations that may occur along the upward trend.

Morsi concluded by stressing the importance of adopting a capital-allocation strategy through phased buying—starting with a limited portion at current levels, then strengthening positions if sharp price corrections occur—allowing investors to build a balanced average cost and reduce the risks of buying at market peaks.