Who’s Driving Growth in Global Economy 2026?

As the global economy enters 2026, the compass of growth is shifting away from advanced economies toward emerging markets. 

Asia, led by China and India, is set to play a decisive role in driving global economic expansion, according to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts.

The IMF projects that global real GDP growth will reach 3.1% in 2026, a performance described as resilient despite the slowdown in advanced economies and tightening financial conditions worldwide. Data show that China and India alone will account for nearly 44% of global growth, underscoring the shifting center of economic gravity toward Asia.

China is expected to contribute 26.6% of global real GDP growth in 2026, remaining the largest engine of the world economy despite slower growth rates compared to previous decades. Its massive economic size continues to provide substantial momentum.

India follows in second place, contributing 17% of global growth, fueled by robust economic expansion projected at 6.2%, reinforcing its status as the fastest-growing major economy.

Among advanced economies, the United States remains the largest individual contributor but accounts for only 9.9% of global growth, with growth expected at 2.1%.

Europe collectively contributes 9.5% of global growth, divided among major economies such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. Growth is constrained by demographic challenges, including aging populations and slower labor force expansion, compounded by tighter financial conditions.

Together, the U.S. and EU contribute just 16% of total global growth, highlighting the clear shift of economic momentum toward emerging markets.

Regionally, the Asia-Pacific area dominates the global growth scene, accounting for roughly 59.4% of growth, with significant contributions not only from China and India but also from Indonesia, Vietnam, and other fast-growing economies.

North America contributes about 11.4% of global growth, while Africa accounts for 7.7%, led by rapidly growing economies such as Nigeria, Egypt, and Ethiopia, benefiting from population growth, an expanding labor force, and rising consumption and government spending.

The IMF calculates each country’s contribution to global growth based on real GDP at purchasing power parity (PPP), a measure that adjusts for price differences between countries. This gives faster-growing emerging economies greater weight in assessing global growth.

The 2026 forecasts confirm that the drivers of global growth are no longer centered in advanced economies. Instead, countries in earlier stages of economic development, supported by favorable demographic and consumption trends, are taking the lead, a shift that is redrawing the map of global economic power.