Washington–Caracas tensions support gold despite weekly global losses

Gold prices rose in the local market during Saturday’s trading, coinciding with the weekend closure of global exchanges, despite the ounce recording sharp weekly losses of 4.4%. Expectations are mounting for fresh gains at the start of the new trading week, supported by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Venezuela, according to a report issued by the iSagha platform.

Saeed Embaby, Executive Director of iSagha, said that gold prices in the domestic market increased by around EGP 35 per gram, with 21-karat gold reaching EGP 5,880. Meanwhile, the gold ounce lost about $201 over the week on the global exchange, settling at $4,332.

Embaby added that 24-karat gold recorded approximately EGP 6,720 per gram, while 18-karat gold stood at around EGP 5,040, and the gold pound reached nearly EGP 47,040.

Historic gains in 2025

Gold achieved annual gains of nearly 56% in the local market during 2025, increasing by about EGP 2,090. The price of 21-karat gold opened the year at EGP 3,740, touched an all-time high of EGP 6,100 on December 28, before closing the year at EGP 5,830.

Globally, gold prices surged by 65%, gaining approximately $1,694 during 2025. Trading began at $2,624 per ounce, peaked at a record $4,555 on December 31, and ended the year at $4,318.

Gold’s journey through an exceptional year

Gold prices followed a volatile path at the start of 2025 after retreating from levels near $2,800 in late 2024, following a rally in high-risk assets triggered by the re-election of U.S. President Donald Trump, which temporarily pushed gold below $2,500.

As 2025 began, gold gradually recovered, moving above $2,800 in February and touching $2,950, before entering a renewed rally that lifted prices to $2,990 by mid-March and to a record high above $3,166 in early April.

Despite temporary pressure caused by the announcement of global tariff measures, gold quickly resumed its upward trend, reaching $3,500 in April, before entering a consolidation phase between $3,120 and $3,435 during the summer months.

In September, gold broke decisively out of its consolidation range, setting new record highs on expectations of interest rate cuts and improving market sentiment. This was followed by a sharp correction in October, after which prices gradually recovered to move back above $4,000.

In December, gold staged a final rally that pushed prices to an all-time high of $4,555 per ounce, before retreating again toward year-end to stabilize near $4,300, a level widely viewed as a strong base heading into 2026.

Geopolitical tensions support the precious metal

Rising expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, alongside escalating geopolitical tensions, have recently supported gold prices, particularly amid developments in the Ukraine conflict and increasingly aggressive political rhetoric between the United States and several international parties.

Gold prices are expected to see strong movements with the reopening of global markets early next week, amid escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela, following reports of widespread military escalation in Caracas accompanied by political and security unrest.

Record gold forecasts for 2026

The commodities team at Goldman Sachs has presented one of the most optimistic outlooks, forecasting gold prices to reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. This outlook is supported by strong structural buying from central banks—estimated at around 70 tons per month—alongside potential U.S. interest rate cuts, which would boost demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds.

Meanwhile, JPMorgan has issued even bolder projections, expecting gold to reach approximately $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026.

The gold–oil paradox

In contrast, Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to remain under pressure, forecasting average Brent crude prices at $56 per barrel, amid abundant global supply and OPEC’s reluctance to implement aggressive production cuts unless major geopolitical shocks disrupt supplies.

This divergence—strong gold prices versus weak oil prices—highlights the macroeconomic risks expected in 2026, particularly uncertainty surrounding inflation and the ongoing transformation of global energy markets.

The key factor: U.S. interest rates

Analysts at Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan believe that the trajectory of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rates will be the decisive factor shaping asset performance next year, with expectations for yields to decline in the first half of 2026 before stabilizing as inflation data levels out.