Vietnam Prepares Defense Strategy Against Potential ‘U.S. Aggression’ Despite Deepening Ties

In a revelation that highlights the complex dual-path diplomacy of Southeast Asian nations, an internal document from the Vietnamese Ministry of Defense has surfaced, detailing preparations to "confront a U.S. war of aggression." This news comes just one year after Hanoi and Washington elevated their bilateral relations to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, the highest level in Vietnam’s diplomatic hierarchy.

The "Second U.S. Invasion Plan" The document, titled "The Plan for a Second U.S. Invasion" and dated August 2024, reveals deep-seated suspicions within the Vietnamese military leadership. According to the report, first analyzed by the human rights organization "Project 88," Hanoi is concerned that the U.S. and its allies—while publicly focused on "deterring China"—may use "unconventional warfare" or large-scale military intervention against countries that do not remain within their sphere of influence.

Fear of "Color Revolutions" A central theme in the leaked papers is the fear of a "Color Revolution"—a foreign-sparked popular uprising against the Communist leadership, similar to the 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine or the 1986 People Power Revolution in the Philippines. Vietnamese planners argue that they must remain vigilant to prevent Washington from finding "pretexts" for an invasion.

"There is a consensus within the government and across various ministries regarding this stance," noted Ben Swanton, co-director of Project 88. "This is not a fringe position; it reflects a core strategic concern within the Party."

Strategic Hedging or Paranoia? While the document clarifies that there is currently "no imminent high risk" of a war with the United States, it emphasizes the need for "maximum vigilance." This "dual-track" approach allows Vietnam to benefit from U.S. economic cooperation and security assistance in the South China Sea while internally maintaining a posture of ideological and military defense against Western influence.

The leak provides a rare glimpse into the internal psyche of the Vietnamese state as it navigates the intense geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, proving that historical scars and ideological differences continue to shape the defense policies of the region.