Supervisor Elham AbolFateh
Editor in Chief Mohamed Wadie

Trump or Biden... Who Will American Muslims Vote for?


Tue 03 Nov 2020 | 07:30 PM

Despite their low percentage compared to the general population, American Muslims are emerging as a minority that can change the fate of the presidential elections in the United States, which are scheduled to take place today, Tuesday, November 3.

According to opinion polls and election analysts, during the current presidential elections, the Muslim community has a historic opportunity to influence its results, especially in Michigan, Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina- the critical states that will determine the fate of the elections.

The incumbent Republican candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, are competing in the 2020 US presidential election.

According to a study conducted by the American Pew Research Center, in 2017, there are about 3.45 million American Muslims in the United States, representing about 1.1 percent of the population in the country.

According to the study, by 2040, the Muslim population in the United States is expected to exceed the Jewish population and become the second-largest religious group in the country after Christians.

It pointed out that the proportion of the Muslim population in the United States is not large in general at the present time, but their concentration in major cities and critical states makes them a minority that can affect the election result directly.

[caption id="attachment_161358" align="aligncenter" width="561"]Trump or Biden... Who American Muslims Vote for? Trump and Biden[/caption]

For example, there are nearly 270,000 American Muslims in Michigan, one of the swing states, although this number represents 2.75 percent of the state's population, it has the power to alter ballot balances in the early and general elections.

In the 2016 Democratic primaries, Muslim Voices of Michigan awarded victory to Bernie Sanders over his rival Hillary Clinton.

In the presidential election in the same year, Republican candidate Donald Trump won the Michigan state against his rival Clinton, by just over 10,000 votes, a meager margin of 0.23 percent.

Muslims, who had always believed that their electoral votes would not change anything based on their small percentage in society, began to participate more in the political sphere by participating in the voting processes and general and local elections.

 

Muslims after September 11

In the aftermath of the attacks of September 11, 2001, linking American Muslims to "terrorism" and wars against Muslim-majority countries, especially Afghanistan and Iraq, affected the attitude of Muslims in the United States to political life and participation in voting and elections.

Before September 11, 80 percent of Muslims stood close to the Republican Party for religious and moral reasons, and after September 11, they turned to the Democratic Party after the increase in racism and anti-Muslims in American society.

[caption id="attachment_77824" align="aligncenter" width="737"]Trump or Biden... Who American Muslims Vote for? September 11 Attacks[/caption]

While 70 percent of American Muslims voted for George W. Bush, who entered the presidential election in 2000, against Democratic candidate Al Gore, the percentage of those who voted for Bush in the election four years later fell to less than 4 percent of the percentage of Muslims.

Muslim voters turned towards the Democratic Party, with Barack Obama in the 2008 elections, and American Muslims gave 82 percent support for Hillary Clinton against Trump in the 2016 election.

In the 2018 midterm elections held under Trump, Muslim support for the Republican Party remained at 10 percent.

The participation of two Muslim women from Minnesota, Ilhan Omar of Somali origin and Rashida Talib of Palestinian origin, from the Democratic Party for the first time in the 2018 mid-term elections gave Muslims self-confidence and the importance of participating in the political process.

The meeting of Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders, with the Muslim community in a mosque during the primaries, was one of the most important transformations that the Muslim community in the country witnessed.

Weight of American Muslims' Votes

A poll conducted this summer by the Center for "American Immigration Policy" at the University of California, showed the power of the electoral votes of the Muslim community in the states of Arizona and Georgia, two states that are crucial in the presidential election.

According to the poll results, nearly 60,000 American Muslims live in both Arizona and Georgia, and this percentage has a power that can easily change the balance in the elections, especially between Republican President Trump and his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden.

About 128,000 registered Muslim voters live in Pennsylvania, one of the most important states in the US presidential election.

In the 2016 election, Trump won only 44,000 electoral votes in this state against his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, and he won all 20 delegates in the state.

According to local sources, there are approximately 30,000 Muslim voters in North Carolina with 15 delegates.

He pointed out that Florida, which is considered one of the swing states, is inhabited by about 150,000 Muslim voters, and said: Given that the vote difference between the Democratic candidate Al Gore and the Republican candidate George Bush was only 537 in the 2000 presidential elections, the importance of the American Muslims voter in changing the balances of the presidential elections is now quite clear.

About 128,000 registered Muslim voters live in Pennsylvania, one of the most important states in the US presidential election.

In the 2016 election, Trump won only 44,000 electoral votes in this state against his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, and he won all 20 delegates in the state.

According to research by the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU), during the presidential primaries this summer, 78 percent of Muslim voters participated in the voting process, up from just 60 percent in the 2016 election.

According to a poll conducted by the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), one of the largest Islamic NGOs in the United States, 71 percent of the Muslim community intends to vote for Biden's Democratic presidential candidate.

Only about 18 percent of American Muslims voters, the poll added, expressed their desire to vote for Trump.

The poll was conducted on Muslim voters, after the first election debate between Trump and his rival Biden, on September 29.

It indicated that 89 percent of registered Muslim voters intend to participate in the voting process, while 11 percent are still hesitant about going to the polls.

The poll indicated that American Muslim voters, despite their support for Biden, expressed concern about the approach Biden would take in the Middle East if he took over the presidency of the United States.