Tin, Copper Hit Record Highs as Base Metals Rally Accelerates

Tin and copper surged to record levels as a broad rally in base metals gathered momentum at the start of the year, fueled by a weaker U.S. dollar, expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, and strong investor demand, particularly from China.

Tin prices jumped as much as 6% on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to reach $52,495 a metric ton, surpassing the previous peak set in 2022. The metal has now gained roughly 30% since the beginning of the year, making it one of the strongest performers in the industrial metals complex.

Copper extended its advance above the $13,000-a-ton threshold, while nickel, zinc, and aluminum also posted solid gains.

Industrial metals have started the year on strong footing as investors price in potential interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a softer U.S. dollar, both of which tend to support commodity prices. At the same time, structural demand from fast-growing sectors such as artificial intelligence, data centers, and renewable energy continues to underpin longer-term bullish sentiment.

The London Metal Exchange Index (LMEX), which tracks six major base metals including copper and tin, is on course to surpass its highest level in more than three years.

Tin, the least liquid of the LME’s major metals, is particularly prone to sharp price swings. A wave of buying from Chinese investors has amplified the rally, with tin trading volumes on the Shanghai Futures Exchange hitting a record daily high on Tuesday, followed by prices reaching the exchange’s daily limit on Wednesday.

The metal’s extensive use in soldering has long made it a bellwether for the electronics and computing sectors. Recent capital inflows tied to AI-related investments have further boosted demand, mirroring broader trends across the metals market.

Lingering uncertainty over exports from Indonesia, the world’s second-largest tin producer, has added another layer of support. A military-led crackdown on illegal mining in the country’s main production region curtailed supply last year, while December exports declined on a month-on-month basis.

Outlooks for 2026 shipments remain unclear, partly because the government has yet to approve mining quotas for the year.

Despite the sharp price gains, there are still no clear signs of a near-term physical shortage in the tin market. Inventories tracked by the LME have risen to their highest level in 11 months, and futures contracts are trading at a premium to spot prices, a structure known as contango, which typically signals adequate short-term supply.

As of 12:13 p.m. Shanghai time, tin was trading up 5.2% at $52,085 a ton on the LME. In Shanghai, prices hit an all-time high after surging 9% to the daily limit, reaching 413,170 yuan ($59,212) a ton.

For now, the metals rally appears driven as much by financial momentum as by fundamentals, raising questions over how long prices can climb before supply dynamics reassert themselves.