The American Politico magazine recently published a report in which it dealt with what it described as the decline in the performance of electoral campaign of President Donald Trump, saying that the goal of the campaign is centered on keeping the president's opportunities in the competition circle after it had previously shown excessive confidence in his victory in the electoral race next November, Dr. Salem Alketbi, an Emirati writer and analyst, says.
The report communicated on sources within the Republican Party as saying that the days when the party expected a sweeping victory is over, and that the president's team is trying to reconsider expectations based on reducing the margin of loss.
Evidence on the ground indicates that President Trump's position is indeed difficult in the upcoming elections. The campaign team, which was working in a comfortable atmosphere, has calculated the points very accurately, to ensure victory in the States that guarantee the president to obtain 270 votes in the electoral college, (i.e. half plus one at least on the total votes of the 538 electoral college members).
Opinion polls for their part reflect the predicament of President Trump, who is suffering a relative decline in his popularity compared to his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, who has been advancing by 10-14 points, since the beginning of the crisis of the Corona epidemic, as well as the events of Charlottesville and mass shootings, tax reform, and the report of the counselor.
Robert Mueller and Trump's accountability process before Congress, then the series of books issued by his former National Security Adviser John Bolton and his niece came to complement the cycle of decline and to negatively affect his popularity, which is strongly evidenced in Biden’s equal score to Trump’s or even Biden’s progress in some polls in States previously won by President Trump, who was in a comfortable position compared to his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, in the 2016 elections.
The surprise in some opinion polls is that the performance of the American economy and the increase in unemployment rates are not the main reason for the decline in support for President Trump, as the percentage of supporters of his economic policies still exceeds 50% of the poll sample, and more importantly, these ratios are achieved in the States that suffer the most with the repercussions of the coronavirus, like New York and others.
Trump still has the confidence of many to restore the wheel of the economy back on track as it was the case during the first three years of his presidential term, especially as he focuses on incentive measures, tackling unemployment and adopting restrictive measures against foreigners ’work and other matters that have support among his electoral base.
But the problem remains that not a few supporters of his economic policies are reluctant to agree to his re-election in the polls.
Notably, other issues have seriously damaged his re-election opportunities, such as responding to ethnic protests and fears of eroding ethnic cohesion.
There is, of course, something related to the impact of President Trump's negative mental image due to the criticism contained in the book of John Bolton, former US National Security Adviser, as well as the book of US President Donald Trump’s niece that includes details about the bad dealings in the family, which was under the care of Trump's father, Fred, which family constituted the personality of “an emotionally empty president who poses a threat to the country,” according to what the American newspapers have quoted about the book Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Made the Most Dangerous Man in the World, expected to be published within a few days.
CNN quoted Mary Trump as saying in her book, “Donald destroyed my father, following the example of my grandfather and with the complicity, silence, and inaction of his brothers. I cannot allow him to destroy my country,” describing her uncle as a “fraudster and bully”. Mary, who holds a doctorate in clinical psychology, says about her uncle: “The situation here outweighs the types of narcissism known. Donald is not simply a weak personality, but his arrogance about himself is fragile, so he must be supported all the time because he knows inside that he has nothing of what he claims.”
There is no doubt that the content of all these books represents fertile material for the attack on the president and the attempt to limit his chances of re-election, but the impact and results of this attack from the competitors will depend on the general situation in the country, economically, politically, as well as at the security and health levels.
The biggest dilemma facing the re-election of President Trump - in my opinion - lies in the president himself, who insists on sticking to his approach and his style of work and leadership, and does not seek to make tactical changes to attract a segment of the electorate.
This means the stability of the current difference in opinion polls unless a qualitative change occurs in voting trends, whether due to an economic achievement or due to urgent circumstances that may require the voters to fear the adventure of change in a sensitive time for the country, such as the United States’ war or military conflict with a foreign country, or the committing by his democratic rival of a political mistake that can be exploited by Trump’s campaign, or the opponent's involvement in a scandal that could cause him to miss his chances of winning the elections.
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