Gold prices in the local market recorded a significant increase, in line with the rise in global ounce prices and the decline of the U.S. dollar, amid ongoing geopolitical tensions linked to the U.S.-Iran conflict, which have also impacted energy markets and global monetary policy expectations, according to a report issued by the iSagha platform.
Saeed Imbabi, CEO of the platform, said that gold prices in Egypt rose by about EGP 175 during today’s trading compared to the close of last week, bringing the price of 21-karat gold to EGP 7,100 per gram, while the global ounce rose by about $66 to reach $4,560.
The price of 24-karat gold recorded about EGP 8,114 per gram, while 18-karat gold reached about EGP 6,086 per gram, and the gold pound reached about EGP 56,800.
Regarding weekly performance, Imbabi explained that gold prices rose slightly last week by around EGP 10, as 21-karat gold opened trading at EGP 6,915, fell to a low of EGP 6,730, and closed the week at EGP 6,925. Globally, the ounce opened trading at $4,497, fell to its lowest level in four months at $4,098, before closing near $4,494.
He pointed out that the rise in local prices was driven by the increase in the global ounce price, in addition to the rise in the exchange rate of the dollar, which approached EGP 54 in some Egyptian banks.
He added that the dollar continued to gain against the Egyptian pound in recent weeks, supported by increasing foreign investor outflows from local debt instruments, alongside escalating regional tensions, which added pressure on the local currency.
He noted that markets are closely monitoring foreign currency inflows, especially tourism revenues and remittances from Egyptians abroad, in addition to interest rate decisions and import obligations, as key factors determining the direction of the exchange rate.
He explained that the movement of the dollar is linked to several factors, including global interest rate trends, demand pressures for foreign currency, foreign investment flows, and geopolitical tensions.
On the global level, gold benefited from the decline of the U.S. dollar; however, expectations of continued high interest rates limited further gains, as gold is a non-yielding asset. Meanwhile, investors increasingly believe that major central banks will maintain tighter monetary policies, especially with rising energy prices resulting from the war, which is fueling inflation concerns.
These concerns intensified following reports of a potential expansion of the conflict, along with ongoing regional attacks, which threaten global supply chains, particularly key shipping routes such as Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz, while also supporting higher oil prices.
In this context, the OECD raised its inflation forecast for the United States to 4.2%, significantly higher than previous estimates, and suggested that interest rates may remain unchanged for an extended period, while market expectations indicate a probability exceeding 50% of a rate hike in 2026, according to the FedWatch tool.
Although geopolitical tensions typically increase gold’s appeal as a safe haven, current market conditions show a different trend, as the strength of the dollar and rising bond yields have pushed investors toward liquidity and yield-bearing assets rather than precious metals.
Gold had previously reached an all-time high of $5,608 at the end of January before declining by about 25% to around $4,100, and is currently trading near $4,500, marking a sharp correction after the exceptional gains recorded in 2025, when gold rose by about 65% driven by strong central bank purchases and increased hedging demand.
This decline triggered a wave of liquidation in leveraged positions in futures markets and exchange-traded funds, as the opportunity cost of holding gold increased due to rising yields and a stronger dollar.
Overall, current market movements reflect a notable shift, where macroeconomic factors—particularly monetary policy and the strength of the U.S. dollar—have outweighed gold’s traditional role as a safe haven, amid an environment of high inflation and tighter global financial conditions.
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