Storm in Baghdad: The End of Tehran's Grip on Iraq's Vital Artery

In a decisive week that puts Iraq’s future at a crossroads, negotiations to

form a new Iraqi government have transformed into an open confrontation between the will of the state and the logic of militias. More than a month after the parliamentary elections held in November 2025, the central question is no longer "Who will be the next Prime Minister?" but rather "Will weapons remain in the hands of Tehran’s proxies?" The rapid developments of the past seven days have revealed an unprecedented fracture in the wall of Iranian influence, signaling a new phase that may mark the beginning of the end for the Velayat-e Faqih regime’s project in Mesopotamia.

THE "SAVAYA" WARNING AND THE POLITICAL EARTHQUAKE

The past week witnessed a dramatic shift as international factors forcefully entered the crisis. Fiery statements issued by the U.S. Presidential Envoy, "Savaya," on December 22, upended the calculations of the Coordination Framework leaders. Washington’s message was clear and unambiguous: "Statements of intent are not enough; disarmament must be comprehensive and irreversible."

This firm stance placed Iraqi political forces before two choices: move toward a sovereign state or remain in a spiral of international isolation and sanctions. U.S. pressure, coupled with serious Israeli warnings regarding the targeting of weapon depots, has forced militia leaders to seek a lifeline, even at the expense of their ideological loyalty to Tehran.

FRACTURES IN THE "LOYALIST HOUSE": DIVISION HITS THE PROXIES

For the first time in years, deep cracks have appeared within the so-called "Axis of Resistance" in Iraq. Informed sources from within Baghdad’s closed-door meetings (according to "One News" and local agencies) confirmed a sharp division between factions:

1. The Political Pragmatism Wing: Comprising factions seeking to preserve their political and economic gains. They have shown a "surface-level" readiness to hand over weapons to the state or integrate under the umbrella of official institutions to avoid being targeted.

2. The Ideological Hardline Wing: Led by militias such as "Kata'ib Hezbollah," which rejected any talk of disarmament and conditioned it on a full U.S. withdrawal, considering any concession a betrayal of the Iranian project.

This fragmentation is not merely a tactical dispute; it is a direct reflection of the weakness currently afflicting the "mastermind" in Tehran. The Iranian regime, which used to manage the Iraqi scene with the flick of a finger, now finds itself unable to unite the ranks of its proxies.

PANIC IN TEHRAN: THE LOSS OF STRATEGIC DEPTH

From the perspective of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), the events unfolding in Baghdad are a natural repercussion of the suffocating crises surrounding the mullahs' regime in Tehran. Reports indicate intense Iranian anger over the submission of certain factions to American pressure. Tehran views the disarmament of militias as being stripped of its most important regional leverage and the severing of a vital artery that provides it with influence and hard currency.

The Iranian regime's attempts to intervene and impose a "compromise Prime Minister" to protect militia weaponry have hit a solid wall of popular and international rejection. The regime's internal weakness, coinciding with rising protests in Iranian cities and a deteriorating economic situation, has rendered its ability to maneuver in the Iraqi file extremely limited compared to previous years.

UPCOMING SCENARIOS

We are facing decisive days that will determine the face of Iraq for years to come. Militia attempts to maneuver through "repositioning" or rebranding will not deceive the international community or the uprising Iraqi public.

The battle has moved from the ballot boxes to the weapon depots. Any future government born from this crisis will be judged by a single standard: its ability to implement the decision to "confine weapons to the hands of the state" in reality, not just in appearance. The retreat of Iranian influence in Iraq is not merely a political loss for Tehran; it is a strategic indicator of the erosion of the Khomeinist expansionist project across the entire region, bolstering the chances for the Iranian people and their organized resistance at home to topple the "head of the snake."