OPEC+ Confirms Pause on Oil Output Increase in March

The OPEC+ alliance has confirmed it will keep oil production levels unchanged in March, reaffirming its commitment to market stability as geopolitical risks and supply disruptions continue to shape price dynamics.

In a statement issued Sunday, the group said it would maintain current output rates without any increase next month, citing stable global economic expectations and strong underlying market fundamentals. The decision extends a production pause agreed in November 2025, when the alliance opted to delay planned increases due to seasonal demand patterns.

Eight key OPEC+ members, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman, reiterated their adherence to the strategy during a virtual meeting, according to the statement.

The confirmation comes against a backdrop of unexpectedly firm oil prices at the start of 2026. Many analysts had anticipated a surplus-driven decline this year, but prices have instead been buoyed by geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainties. Brent futures have climbed toward $70 a barrel, according to Bloomberg data.

Market volatility has intensified following renewed threats by US President Donald Trump to strike Iran, adding a geopolitical risk premium estimated at $7 to $10 per barrel, according to Citigroup. The situation has been further complicated by the recent removal of Venezuela’s former president Nicolás Maduro, an event that has reshaped crude flows from the country.

In a year when many traders expected oil prices to hover near $50 a barrel, options markets have increasingly priced in upside scenarios, with some bets targeting prices above $90.

OPEC+ emphasized that up to 1.65 million barrels per day could be returned to the market either partially or in full, depending on how conditions evolve. The alliance stressed it would continue to closely monitor supply-demand balances and maintain full flexibility to pause, extend or reverse voluntary adjustments if necessary.

That flexibility includes the group’s additional voluntary cuts totaling 2.2 million barrels per day, first announced in November 2023 and still in effect.

The alliance had previously agreed to introduce an incremental output increase of 137,000 barrels per day starting in December 2025, but subsequently froze the planned rise for the first quarter of 2026 in light of seasonal factors.

OPEC+ members agreed to hold monthly meetings to review market conditions, compliance levels and compensation mechanisms. The next meeting is scheduled for March 1.