Oil Slides 4% as Supply Glut, Russia–Ukraine Peace Hopes Weigh

Oil prices closed lower on Friday, posting a weekly loss of around 4%, as persistent concerns over excess global supply and growing expectations of a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine overshadowed geopolitical risks elsewhere.

Brent crude futures slipped 16 cents to settle at $61.12 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by the same margin to $57.44 a barrel. Both benchmarks had already declined by about 1.5% on Thursday, extending losses to more than 4% over the week.

Latest Oil Prices:

WTI Crude $57.44 -0.16 -0.28%

Brent Crude $61.12 -0.16 -0.26%

Murban Crude $62.18 -0.40 -0.64%

Louisiana Light $59.62 -0.13 -0.22%

Bonny Light $78.62 -2.30 -2.84%

Opec Basket $61.28 -0.59 -0.95%

Mars US $70.36 -0.96 -1.35%

Gasoline $1.752 -0.008 -0.44%

Natural Gas $4.113 -0.118 -2.79%

Market participants remain focused on the outlook for crude supply, with ample availability continuing to weigh heavily on prices.

“The market is still under pressure from the current supply situation,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, adding that oil traders appear to be largely ignoring tensions between the United States and Venezuela.

That muted reaction came despite US President Donald Trump announcing on Wednesday that Washington had seized a санкtioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. Six sources familiar with the matter said the United States is also preparing to intercept additional vessels transporting Venezuelan crude.

Analysts and traders, however, have downplayed the potential market impact of the seizure, pointing instead to robust global supply levels that limit upside risks.

New forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA) reinforced bearish sentiment. In projections released on Thursday, the agency said global oil supply is set to exceed demand by about 3.84 million barrels per day next year, equivalent to nearly 4% of global consumption.

By contrast, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) painted a more balanced picture in data published the same day, forecasting that global supply and demand will be roughly aligned in 2026, highlighting the ongoing divergence in outlooks between major forecasting bodies.

Some factors continue to provide modest support for prices. These include heightened tensions between Washington and Caracas, as well as Ukrainian drone strikes on a Russian oil platform in the Caspian Sea, according to Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

Nevertheless, the impact of these developments has been outweighed by broader supply concerns and expectations that any progress toward ending the Russia–Ukraine war could ease sanctions-related disruptions.