Oil Rises to Two-Week High on Fed Rate Cut Signals, Supply Concerns

Oil prices climbed to their highest level in two weeks on Friday, supported by growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week and by deepening concerns over global supply disruptions from Russia and Venezuela.

Brent crude settled 0.8% higher, gaining 49 cents to reach $63.75 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.7%, or 41 cents, to $60.08. Both benchmarks recorded their strongest close since November 18. On a weekly basis, Brent added nearly 1%, while WTI rose about 3%, marking a second consecutive week of gains.

latest Oil Prices: 

WTI Crude  60.08 +0.41 +0.69%

Brent Crude  63.75 +0.49 +0.77%

Murban Crude  65.60 +0.52 +0.80%

Louisiana Light  61.04 +0.48 +0.79%

Bonny Light  78.62 -2.30 -2.84%

Mars US  70.36 -0.96 -1.35%

Gasoline  1.834 +0.007 +0.38%

Natural Gas 5.289 +0.226 +4.46%

The rally reflects investor optimism following U.S. inflation data that boosted bets on a Fed rate cut at the December 9–10 meeting. According to CME FedWatch, markets now price in an 87% chance of a quarter-point reduction, a move that could stimulate economic activity and strengthen energy demand.

The bullish sentiment was tempered slightly by data showing a slowdown in U.S. consumer spending in September after three months of strong growth. The moderation underscores waning economic momentum amid persistent living-cost pressures and signs of weakening labor market strength.

Trade developments also played a role in shaping oil sentiment. U.S. and Chinese officials held high-level talks on Friday, while President Donald Trump announced plans to meet North American leaders on the sidelines of the 2026 World Cup draw in Washington. Any progress on trade relations could bolster global economic growth, and, by extension, oil consumption.

Investors’ attention increasingly turned to supply risks from Russia and Venezuela,  both under U.S. sanctions and key members of the OPEC+ alliance. Talks between Washington and Moscow failed to make progress on the war in Ukraine, providing upward pressure on crude.

Tamas Varga, oil analyst at PVM, said the lack of advancement in peace negotiations “supports prices on the upside,” though higher OPEC output remains a counterweight, keeping market moves “muted despite geopolitical tensions.”

In Europe, G7 nations and the EU are debating the removal of the Russian oil price cap in favor of a complete maritime ban, aiming to further constrain Moscow’s energy revenues.

Meanwhile, during a visit to New Delhi, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered India uninterrupted energy supplies. Industry sources said Indian Oil and Bharat Petroleum have already requested January cargoes, taking advantage of expanded discounts on Russian crude.

Russian authorities also reported that a Ukrainian drone strike ignited a fire at the Temryuk port on the Sea of Azov, a key hub for exporting LNG, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and grain, adding to fears of supply instability.

Supply anxieties intensified further after President Trump signaled a potentially imminent U.S. action against drug-trafficking networks in Venezuela. Analysts at Rystad Energy warned that any military intervention could threaten up to 1.1 million barrels per day of Venezuelan production, most of which flows to China.