MKS PAMP Forecasts Gold at $5,800 as Geopolitical Risks Fuel Historic Rally

MKS PAMP forecasts that Gold prices could climb to a new all-time high of $5,800 per ounce before the end of the year, driven by persistent structural factors supporting the precious metal despite geopolitical tensions and the ongoing Iranian conflict.

Nicky Shiels, Head of Metals Strategy and Research at MKS PAMP, said in exclusive remarks to deVere that the Iranian conflict has “reshaped” the bullish Gold narrative without ending the long-term upward trend, stressing that the yellow metal continues to enjoy strong underlying support despite short-term corrective moves.

Shiels explained that Gold could deliver annual gains exceeding 30%, while forecasting an average price of around $4,500 per ounce during 2026, with the possibility of setting fresh record highs in the second half of the year.

She added that Gold has evolved during the current crisis from merely being a hedge against currency debasement into something closer to an “inverse oil indicator,” noting that an inflationary environment combined with slowing economic growth is bringing the stagflation scenario back into focus.

According to Shiels, concerns surrounding the expansion of U.S. debt, long-term weakness in the U.S. dollar, and escalating geopolitical tensions remain key pillars supporting Gold prices. She noted that prices below $5,000 per ounce remain reasonable under current oil prices and weak seasonal physical demand during summer, while trading above $5,000 could become the norm in the second half of 2026.

Regarding the possibility of Gold reaching $10,000 per ounce by 2030, Shiels said the scenario is “theoretically possible, but not the base case,” explaining that such a move would require a major shift in institutional investment flows away from equities and toward real assets.

She pointed out that Gold’s current global market capitalization represents only around 20% of the value of the global equity market, compared with historical levels approaching 40%, which could theoretically push Gold toward $10,000 per ounce without requiring a collapse in stock markets.

Shiels also noted that U.S. Gold reserves currently cover only about 3% of government debt, compared with nearly 50% during World War II. Raising that coverage ratio to just 10% of current U.S. debt levels could theoretically drive Gold prices toward $15,000 per ounce.

On Silver, Shiels said Gold offers stronger opportunities in the near term, while Silver appears to hold greater long-term potential due to a persistent structural supply deficit.

She explained that Silver remains far below its inflation-adjusted highs near $200 per ounce, but would require a strong recovery in both investment and industrial demand to reclaim the record levels seen in January above $120 per ounce.

She added that the Iranian conflict has placed significant pressure on Silver because of concerns over slowing economic growth and weakening industrial demand, particularly since more than half of Silver consumption is tied to industrial activity and green energy sectors.

As for Platinum and Palladium, Shiels expects Platinum to outperform in the coming period, supported by supply deficits and rising demand from hybrid vehicle manufacturing, alongside continued industrial and jewelry demand. Palladium, meanwhile, remains more directly tied to automotive sector policies and industrial demand trends.