On Sunday, almost 25 million Iraqis will go to the polls to vote in early parliamentary elections. In the 329-member legislature, 3,240 candidates are fighting for seats.
Outgoing Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi tweeted on Thursday that the Iraqis must “create change” through their vote.
“Elections are the national path that produces a new parliament, protects our nation, and builds a state,” he added.
“You must freely choose who represents you based on Iraqi national values,” he added while addressing the people.
The Iraqi Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) announced that the elections would be held. There are 950 women standing for office, and 789 candidates have declared themselves independent.
Observers, however, have questioned such assertions, believing that the title of independent is simply another tactic used by political parties to get more seats.
There are 33 electoral alliances and 8,278 voting locations registered with the IHEC. Over 600 personnel of the security forces will assist in the protection of the electoral process, which will be monitored by around 200 international observers.
On Wednesday, a dozen Western governments, including the United States and the United Kingdom, called on “all parties to respect the rule of law and the integrity of the electoral process”.
In contrast to previous polls, where results took several weeks to be published, the election results will be announced 24 hours after the voting process ends.
Even before the elections, political parties have been debating who should be named president, prime minister, and parliament speaker.
Because Shiite blocs will win the majority of parliamentary seats, the job of Prime Minister is almost guaranteed to be filled by a Shiite person. The parliament is in charge of appointing the prime minister.
The president of Iraq is often a Kurdish figure, and this is unlikely to change. The speaker of parliament is a Sunni Arab, and the current speaker, Mohammed al-Halbousi, has publicly expressed his desire to run for president.
He recently stated that the job "should not be limited to Kurds." Despite disagreements about who should be the next president, the Kurds insist on keeping the position.
Dr. Ihssan Shmary, the head of Iraq's Center for Political Thinking, projected that established political forces will win the elections.
According to Asharq Al-Awsat, they will win almost 80% of the seats, with the remaining going to independents or parties.
He noted that after the elections, these organisations will almost certainly agree on a sectarian distribution of jobs, including the president, prime minister, and parliament speaker.
In the end, unless voter turnout hits 80%, which appears doubtful at the moment, the elections will not bring about significant change in the country. Shmary remarked.
If the same political forces maintain control over state institutions, Iraq will suffer increased tensions because the people will not accept the current status quo unless fresh faces are brought in to lead the country, he said.
“This, in turn, is highly unlikely, meaning we are headed towards a new crisis,” he stated.
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