IMF: War Could Push Global Hunger Past 360 Million

The global economy is facing a fresh stress test as geopolitical conflict in the Middle East drives up food insecurity and disrupts critical supply chains, according to Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund.

In her latest remarks, Georgieva said the ongoing conflict has triggered widespread economic fallout, with ripple effects across energy, trade, and food systems worldwide.

She warned that the number of people suffering from acute food insecurity has surged by an additional 45 million, pushing the global total to more than 360 million. The situation is expected to worsen further amid rising fertilizer prices, which threaten agricultural production and food supply.

The conflict has significantly disrupted oil refining operations and reduced the availability of refined products, particularly diesel, an essential fuel for transportation, trade, and tourism. These disruptions have compounded existing pressures on global supply chains.

Georgieva also highlighted shortages in key industrial inputs such as sulfur and helium, which are vital for sectors including semiconductor manufacturing. These constraints are adding strain to already fragile production networks.

According to the IMF chief, the economic shock is being transmitted through three primary channels.

First, rising prices and supply shortages are feeding into broader inflation, as higher input costs push up the price of consumer goods while dampening demand.

Second, inflation expectations are increasing, reflecting heightened uncertainty across global markets.

Third, financial conditions are tightening worldwide. Emerging markets have seen widening bond yield spreads, while equity markets have experienced volatility alongside a stronger U.S. dollar.

Georgieva described the war as a “major supply shock,” noting that global daily oil flows have declined by around 13%, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows have dropped by approximately 20%.

She stressed that the impact varies across countries, depending on factors such as geographic proximity to the conflict and the degree of reliance on energy imports or exports.