The International Energy Agency (IEA) revised upward its outlook for global oil demand growth in 2026, citing stronger-than-expected consumption trends and a slightly tighter market balance, according to its latest monthly oil market report released on Wednesday.
The Paris-based agency now expects global oil demand to increase by 930,000 barrels per day, up from its previous forecast of 860,000 barrels per day, reflecting improved economic activity and resilient energy consumption across key markets.
Despite the upward revision in demand, the IEA continues to project a supply surplus in the global oil market this year, though at a slightly reduced level. Reuters calculations based on the report indicate that global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by approximately 3.69 million barrels per day, down from the earlier estimate of 3.84 million barrels per day published in December.
The agency noted that the adjustment reflects both moderating supply growth and firmer demand prospects, contributing to a more balanced outlook than previously anticipated.
The IEA emphasized that elevated global oil inventories are currently providing reassurance to market participants and helping to limit upward pressure on prices, despite ongoing geopolitical and production uncertainties.
“At present, high stock levels are offering a degree of comfort to the market and are contributing to keeping prices under control,” the agency said.
The revised outlook comes amid a volatile energy landscape marked by production declines in some major oil-producing countries, including Russia, and broader shifts in global energy consumption patterns. While oil prices have experienced their sharpest annual decline since 2020, the IEA’s updated projections suggest demand growth remains resilient heading into 2026.
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