After silver prices surged by more than 200% year-on-year—pushing the gold-to-silver ratio to multi-year lows—it may be time for silver investors to take profits, according to analysts at HSBC.
In a note published Tuesday, the analysts wrote: “After a year-on-year rise of more than 200% in the silver price, you may be wondering if it’s time to sell the family silver.” They added that the rally has flipped the gold/silver ratio—the number of ounces of silver that can be bought with one ounce of gold—from an unusually high level in April 2025 to an unusually low level now, despite gold prices rising by around one-third over the same period.
The analysts cautioned against viewing silver as a new safe-haven asset, noting: “It’s unlikely that silver has become a safe haven. What is more likely is that, as silver began to catch up with gold, momentum took over and retail investors joined in, just as industrial demand has been picking up.”
HSBC has been issuing cautionary signals on precious metals since the start of the year. On January 8, the bank’s analysts warned that rising geopolitical risks and increasing debt levels could push gold prices as high as $5,050 per ounce in the first half of 2026, though this could be followed by a more pronounced correction in the second half.
“We see a wide range of $5,050 to $3,950 per ounce for gold in 2026, with an end-year price of $4,450 per ounce,” the analysts said.
While the $5,050 forecast exceeded the bank’s previous call of $5,000, HSBC lowered its average gold price forecast for 2026 from $4,600 to $4,587 per ounce, citing the risk that higher prices could trigger a correction later in the year.
The analysts added that any correction could be deeper if geopolitical risks ease or if the U.S. Federal Reserve halts its interest-rate-cutting cycle, warning that gold markets are likely to experience heightened volatility in 2026.
HSBC also raised its average gold price forecast for 2027 to $4,625 per ounce from $3,950, lifted its 2028 forecast to $4,700 from $3,630, and set an average price target of $4,775 per ounce for 2029.
In late November, HSBC currencies and commodities strategist Rodolphe Bohn said he expects gold to maintain its upward trajectory, supported by strong demand from central banks and retail investors.
In HSBC’s Think Future 2026 outlook, Bohn noted that despite gold’s impressive performance year-to-date and recent volatility, the bank remains constructive on the metal in the months ahead.
“We believe investors can benefit from diversifying their exposure to global assets—particularly foreign exchange—through gold,” he wrote. “Gold provides resilience during periods of significant turbulence and still offers potential for further appreciation.”
Bohn added that gold was enjoying one of its strongest years on record in 2025, driven primarily by rising global uncertainty and concerns over U.S. dollar debasement. “Despite improved global sentiment and rising global equity markets, current conditions remain supportive for gold prices,” he said.
“We believe gold will continue to benefit from strong central-bank demand, ongoing concerns about a weaker U.S. dollar, and sustained interest in gold-backed ETFs,” Bohn added. “In this context, gold remains a critical portfolio diversifier, helping investors navigate persistent global uncertainty.”
However, Bohn acknowledged downside risks to HSBC’s positive outlook if the Federal Reserve unexpectedly adopts a more hawkish stance or if the global economic environment improves, despite the current positive correlation.
“Overall, given the expected weakness in the U.S. dollar and further global monetary easing—particularly from the Federal Reserve—there is a foundation for gold prices to rise, albeit at a slower pace than previously experienced.”
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