Gold prices in local markets rose during trading on Saturday, coinciding with the weekly holiday of the global stock exchange, following a slight weekly decline in the ounce of approximately 0.06%,
Gold prices in the local market rose by approximately 30 EGP compared to the previous day’s closing. The price of a 21-carat gold gram reached 6,890 EGP, while a 24-carat gram traded at 7,874 EGP, and an 18-carat gram was priced at 5,906 EGP. Meanwhile, the gold pound reached around 55,120 EGP. On the international market, the price of one ounce of gold declined by about 3 USD during last week’s trading, settling at 4,494 USD.
Despite this slight weekly decline, gold prices rose by more than 3% on Friday, supported by the weakening of the US dollar and increased investor demand, which helped curb losses. However, gold is still set to record a decline for the fourth consecutive week, amid continued pressures from rising energy prices and expectations of ongoing global interest rate hikes.
These movements come amid a highly complex economic and geopolitical environment, as gold prices climbed again to nearly 4,500 USD per ounce, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, following the Israeli airstrike on Beirut and Iranian missile attacks on the Saudi capital. These developments increased demand for gold as a safe haven, despite countervailing pressures from a strong dollar and rising US bond yields.
Meanwhile, markets recently experienced one of the largest selling waves in years, causing gold prices to drop by about 15% this month and by around 16% since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran on February 28, influenced by the rise of the US dollar, which gained more than 2% during the same period. This decline has tested investors’ confidence in gold and raised questions about its ability to maintain its safe-haven status amid current global turmoil.
Despite these pressures, opportunistic buyers began re-entering the market, taking advantage of price declines, which helped limit losses and support gold’s long-term upward trend that has persisted over the past three years.
Energy market developments have also played a pivotal role in shaping market trends, as Brent crude oil stabilized above 105 USD per barrel, driven by the near-total halt of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which channels about one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. This situation has heightened inflationary fears, with rising transport and manufacturing costs.
Although higher inflation generally supports gold as a hedge, expectations of continued interest rate hikes reduce its appeal, as it is a non-yielding asset, creating a complex balance between supporting and pressuring factors on prices.
In this context, markets are pricing in the scenario of continued monetary tightening, with traders not expecting any US interest rate cuts in 2026 and giving a 35% probability of a rate hike by the end of the year, according to the FedWatch tool of CME Group, compared to previous expectations of two rate cuts before the crisis.
Data from the University of Michigan showed a decline in US consumer confidence in March, alongside rising short-term inflation expectations, reinforcing the likelihood that monetary policy will remain tight. Federal Reserve officials have also indicated a preference to wait for clearer economic signals, given the impact of energy shocks and geopolitical developments.
On the central bank front, updated data revealed that the Central Bank of Turkey liquidated about 60 tons of gold over the past two weeks, either through direct sales or swaps to raise approximately 8 billion USD in liquidity. This represents the largest reduction in Turkish gold reserves since 2018, bringing official holdings down to about 772 tons, the lowest level in 13 months.
Analysts noted that these operations do not necessarily indicate a full exit from gold, as much of it was in the form of swaps, effectively using gold as collateral for temporary liquidity, suggesting that market reactions may have been exaggerated.
However, experts warn that if other central banks follow a similar approach, it could exert downward pressure on spot gold prices, reversing the trend that supported prices over the past two to three years when central banks were among the largest gold buyers.
On the other hand, long-term gold prospects remain supported, with Commerzbank raising its end-of-year target to 5,000 USD per ounce from 4,900 USD, noting that the recent decline is likely temporary. The bank also expects the Iran war to end in spring, potentially easing expectations for US interest rate hikes, and anticipates that the Federal Reserve could resume rate cuts later in the year, totaling around 75 basis points by mid-next year.
In terms of reinforcing gold’s global role, Asian financial centers like Hong Kong and Singapore are seeking to expand their participation in gold markets, through settlement systems and increased storage capacities, enhancing gold’s status as a strategic reserve asset amid growing global uncertainty.
Regarding other precious metals, silver has recovered to trade above 72.30 USD per ounce, while platinum and palladium have struggled to regain their previous gains amid relatively weak industrial demand.
Geopolitically, US President Donald Trump postponed the cessation of attacks on Iranian energy facilities until April 6 in an effort to contain escalation, but mixed signals from Washington, coupled with reports of additional troop deployments, maintained market anxiety.
The announcement by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz further increased tensions, pushing energy prices up, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising by approximately 5% to 98.33 USD per barrel, signaling that markets largely ignored the attempts at de-escalation.
Markets are also set to monitor a series of key US economic data next week, including labor market reports, consumer confidence, and retail sales, which will play a crucial role in shaping monetary policy decisions and the direction of gold prices in the coming period.
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