Gold Rises Locally and Globally Amid Geneva Talks and Dollar Volatility

Gold prices advanced in both the local market and global exchanges during Thursday’s trading, supported by cautious positioning ahead of key geopolitical developments, according to a report by the ISagha platform.

Saeed Embabi, Executive Director of the platform, said the price of gold in the domestic market rose by EGP 5, bringing the gram to EGP 6,965. Globally, spot gold climbed by about $25 to reach $5,179 per ounce.

He added that 24-karat gold recorded around EGP 7,960 per gram, while 18-karat gold reached EGP 5,970. The gold pound coin traded near EGP 55,720.

 Narrow Weekly Range Amid Caution

Gold is trading with a slight upward bias but remains within this week’s range as investors await the third round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran in Geneva.

In European markets, prices rose for a second consecutive session, hovering near a four-week high, amid renewed safe-haven demand. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and persistent uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy continue to underpin the metal.

The current price fluctuations reflect traders’ lack of conviction, as markets weigh geopolitical risks against shifting expectations for U.S. monetary policy.

 Nuclear Talks and Risk Premium

A new round of negotiations between Washington and Tehran is set to begin in Geneva, taking place against the backdrop of a significant U.S. military buildup in the region. Reports suggest Iran is seeking to avoid further escalation and has pledged seriousness and flexibility, stressing that discussions will focus solely on nuclear issues and sanctions relief.

Any tangible breakthrough could ease fears of potential military action and reduce the geopolitical risk premium embedded in gold prices.

U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, alongside Jared Kushner, is scheduled to meet with an Iranian delegation later today in Geneva, signaling continued diplomatic engagement despite heightened political rhetoric. President Donald Trump recently reiterated that he would not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon, reflecting Washington’s firm stance on the matter.

Trade Tariffs Add to Uncertainty

Meanwhile, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that certain tariffs could be raised to 15% “where appropriate,” following the recent implementation of 10% duties. The move comes after a Supreme Court ruling related to the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act for imposing reciprocal tariffs.

The lack of clarity regarding targeted trade partners has added to market uncertainty.

 Federal Reserve Outlook Caps Gains

Investors are also reassessing the trajectory of U.S. interest rates amid ongoing inflation concerns. Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged at its March and April meetings.

A rate cut in June, once considered the most likely timing for renewed monetary easing, now appears less probable. According to the CME FedWatch tool, July is currently viewed as the most likely window for the next rate cut, with a probability of around 66%, while the likelihood of holding rates steady in March stands near 95%.

This shift in expectations has provided near-term support to the U.S. dollar, limiting gold’s upside, as the non-yielding metal tends to struggle in a higher-rate environment.

Dollar Weakness Offers Support

However, the U.S. Dollar Index fell by 0.15% on Thursday, extending losses for a second consecutive session, offering additional support to dollar-denominated gold prices.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated he is open to holding rates steady in March if labor market data show signs of stabilization following weaker performance in 2025.

Investors are closely watching upcoming U.S. economic data and further comments from Fed officials to reassess rate expectations.

 Investment Demand Remains Firm

Despite ongoing volatility, overall sentiment toward gold remains positive, supported by strong buying from Asia and continued central bank demand.

Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, increased by 3.43 metric tons on Wednesday, marking the third consecutive daily inflow. Total holdings rose to 1,097.62 tons, the highest level since April 2022.

Overall, gold continues to draw support from geopolitical and trade-related uncertainty, while evolving U.S. monetary policy expectations act as a moderating force on price gains.