Gold Rises Again… China Continues to Bolster Its Reserves and Morgan Stanley Forecasts $5,200 per Ounce

Gold prices rose in local markets and the global stock exchange during Thursday's trading, supported by the decline of the US dollar and increasing anticipation regarding the possibility of reaching a potential peace agreement between the United States and Iran, amid continued global geopolitical and economic uncertainty, according to a report issued by the “Marsad Al Dahab” for Economic Studies.

The researcher in gold and jewelry affairs and director of the “Marsad Al Dahab” stated that gold prices in the local market rose by about 35 pounds compared to the close of yesterday's transactions, with 21-karat gold recording about 7,020 pounds, while the global ounce rose by about $38 to reach the level of $4,735, according to World Gold Council data at the time of writing the report.

He added that the price of 24-karat gold recorded about 8,023 pounds, while the price of 18-karat gold reached about 6,017 pounds, and the price of a gold pound recorded about 56,160 pounds.

Gold prices had witnessed a noticeable increase during Wednesday's trading, as 21-karat gold rose by about 100 pounds after opening at 6,885 pounds and closing at 6,985 pounds, while the global ounce rose by about $141, from $4,556 to $4,697.

The report indicated that gold continued its strong gains after sharp increases witnessed by the markets during Wednesday's trading by a percentage exceeding 3%, to record its highest levels since late April.

The “Marsad Al Dahab” explained that current movements in the prices of the precious metal are mainly linked to global political and economic developments, especially with the escalating talk of the proximity of reaching understandings between the United States and Iran regarding a potential peace agreement, which includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing restrictions imposed on Iranian ports, which has enhanced the state of anticipation within global markets.

Despite the relative improvement in risk appetite, the report noted that gold still maintains its stability above $4,700 per ounce, in light of continued concerns related to inflation and US monetary policy, along with the weakness of the US dollar and declining expectations of monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve.

The report also pointed out that markets are closely following US economic data, especially after the release of US employment data, which showed continued strength in the labor market, supporting the possibilities of keeping interest rates high for a longer period, which relatively limits gold's ability to achieve larger gains in the short term.

In the same context, Morgan Stanley expected the upward trend of gold to continue during the coming period, with the possibility of prices reaching about $5,200 per ounce by the end of the year, supported by the later return of monetary easing and the increased sensitivity of gold to movements in real yields and interest rates.

The report explained that the continued rise in energy prices and geopolitical tensions has brought inflation back to the forefront of the global economic scene, making monetary policy the most influential factor in gold movements during the current stage, instead of its traditional role as a safe haven only.

On the level of global demand, the People's Bank of China continued to bolster its gold reserves for the eighteenth consecutive month, in a move that reflects the continued trend of central banks toward increasing their holdings of the precious metal as a hedging tool amid global economic fluctuations. China's reserves rose to 74.64 million ounces by the end of March, with a value reaching $344.17 billion.

In the local market, the report indicated that the increase in Egyptian foreign exchange reserves to more than $53 billion by the end of April 2026, supported by an increase in remittances from Egyptians abroad and the growth of foreign exchange revenues, reflects the improvement in economic indicators and the state’s ability to enhance monetary stability, despite the ongoing challenges associated with global inflation and international market fluctuations.

Inflation data issued by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics and the Central Bank of Egypt also showed a relative slowdown in inflation rates during April 2026, which may grant the markets a degree of relative calm during the coming period, as investors continue to anticipate monetary policy decisions globally and locally.