Gold prices in local markets witnessed a noticeable decline during last week’s trading, dropping by approximately 5%. This coincided with a 4.4% fall in the price per ounce on the global exchange, influenced by price volatility and profit-taking operations, according to a report issued by the “iSagha” platform.
Saeed Imbabi, CEO of the platform, stated that gold prices in the local market lost about 185 EGP during the week. The 21-karat gold gram opened trading at 6075 EGP before retreating to 5890 EGP by the end of the week.
Globally, gold prices fell by about $201 per ounce. Trading began at the $4,533 level and closed at $4,332, after hitting a historic record high of $4,555 per ounce.
Imbabi explained that 24-karat gold recorded about 6731 EGP per gram, while 18-karat gold reached approximately 5049 EGP. The gold pound recorded roughly 47,120 EGP.
Despite the weekly decline, gold achieved strong annual gains in the local market during 2025, amounting to about 56%, with an increase of approximately 2090 EGP. The 21-karat gram opened the year at 3740 EGP, touched a historic high of 6100 EGP on December 28, before ending the year at 5830 EGP.
Globally, gold prices rose by 65% during 2025, gaining about $1,694. Trading began at $2,624 per ounce, reached a historic peak of $4,555 on December 31, before concluding the year at $4,318.
After two months of trading below the global spot price, gold returned to trading at a premium in the two largest consumer markets globally, India and China. Both markets witnessed a price rise last week following the retreat from historic peaks, which helped stimulate consumer demand that had been restricted by record highs during December.
In India, dealers imposed a premium of up to $15 per ounce over the official local price, compared to a discount of $61 per ounce the previous week. In China, prices shifted from a discount to a premium of about $3 per ounce over the global spot price, supported by a demand recovery following the sharp price correction.
Analysts believe consumer demand in China remains relatively strong, especially at current price levels, confirming that physical demand remains resilient in the short and long term, despite the caution prevailing in the market due to recent volatility.
In other Asian markets, gold prices in Singapore ranged between a $0.50 discount and a $1.20 premium per ounce. Hong Kong recorded trades between the benchmark price and a $1.70 premium, while gold in Japan was sold at levels close to the global price.
Regarding performance over time, gold’s path during 2025 was characterized by sharp volatility. It declined at the start of the year from levels near $2,800, affected by the rise of high-risk assets following the election of US President Donald Trump for a new term, falling temporarily below $2,500.
As the year progressed, gold gradually regained momentum, surpassing $2,800 in February, then $2,950, before entering a strong bullish wave that pushed it to $2,990 in mid-March, and then to a record level above $3,166 in early April.
Despite temporary pressures resulting from the announcement of global tariffs, gold continued its ascent to record $3,500 in April, before moving in a sideways range between $3,120 and $3,435 during the summer months.
In September, gold broke out of its consolidation range, recording new historic peaks supported by interest rate cut expectations and improved risk appetite, before undergoing a sharp correction in October, followed by a gradual recovery that brought it back above the $4,000 level.
By year-end, gold recorded a final bullish wave reaching a historic high of $4,555, before retreating to settle near $4,300—a level viewed as a strong price base for the start of 2026.
Geopolitical Tensions and Supportive Expectations
Growing expectations of US interest rate cuts, along with escalating geopolitical tensions, contributed to supporting gold prices, especially with developments in the Ukrainian crisis and heated political rhetoric between the US and several international parties.
Markets are expected to witness strong movements as trading resumes next week, in light of escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela, following reports of military escalation and political and security unrest in Caracas.
Regarding future forecasts, the commodities team at “Goldman Sachs” presented one of the most optimistic scenarios, suggesting gold could reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. This is supported by strong central bank purchases estimated at about 70 tons monthly, along with potential US rate cuts boosting demand for gold ETFs.
In contrast, “J.P. Morgan” expects a bolder rise, with suggestions of gold reaching about $5,055 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026.
Conversely, “Goldman Sachs” expects continued pressure on oil prices, estimating the average price of Brent crude at $56 per barrel, given global oversupply and “OPEC’s” hesitation to cut production sharply, barring major geopolitical shocks.
This divergence between gold strength and oil weakness reflects the magnitude of macroeconomic risks expected in 2026, especially those linked to inflation and energy market shifts. Meanwhile, analysts at “Morgan Stanley” and “J.P. Morgan” believe the path of US interest rates will remain the decisive factor in asset performance next year, with expectations of declining yields in the first half of 2026 followed by stabilization as inflation data settles.
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