Gold prices recorded unprecedented historic gains in 2025, as the metal reached record levels not seen since the crisis of the 1970s. The price of gold posted an annual increase of approximately 65% compared to 2024, with spot prices surpassing $4,555 per ounce at the peak by the end of the year.
Amid a year marked by severe economic turbulence and global financial volatility, gold maintained its traditional role as one of the most important hedging instruments for both individuals and governments. Rising concerns over inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions reinforced demand for the yellow metal as a safe haven.
As the curtain closes on a challenging year, attention is now shifting to 2026, with growing questions surrounding the future of gold—particularly in the Egyptian market, which remains highly sensitive to exchange-rate movements as well as supply and demand dynamics.
“A Year of Breaking Psychological Barriers”
Emad Saad, gold market expert, described 2025 as a “year of breaking psychological barriers” for gold prices both globally and locally, noting that markets experienced violent and unprecedented price swings throughout the year.
Saad explained that these movements were driven primarily by decisions of the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding interest rates, in addition to ongoing geopolitical tensions across several regions worldwide, which intensified uncertainty in global markets.
He added that these factors prompted central banks around the world to accelerate their gold purchases, creating structural support for prices and preventing sharp declines even during profit-taking phases.
Key Drivers and Potential Risks in 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, Saad stated that gold will continue to be influenced by several key factors, most notably the monetary policies of global central banks. Expected interest-rate cuts in some major economies are likely to support prices, alongside persistent geopolitical tensions that continue to fuel demand for gold as a safe haven.
However, he warned that any sudden tightening of monetary policy or a strong rally in the U.S. dollar could exert temporary pressure on gold prices.
Will the Uptrend Continue in 2026?
Saad believes that gold’s overall trend in 2026 will remain upward, albeit at a slower pace compared to the sharp rally seen in 2025. He expects global gold prices to target new record highs should global monetary easing policies persist.
He emphasized that gold will continue to be the primary hedge for investors against the erosion of fiat currencies’ value, while cautioning that any unexpected geopolitical breakthrough could trigger sharp short-term corrections in the market.
Egypt’s Gold Market and a Complex Pricing Equation
Saad noted that gold pricing in the Egyptian market during 2026 will be governed by a complex equation that extends beyond global prices alone. He explained that growing public awareness of gold as a savings vehicle—particularly bullion and gold coins—has led to a relative decline in demand for traditional jewelry.
He added that rising investment demand, combined with limited supplies of raw gold, could at times push prices above fair-value levels.
Saad stressed that gold prices in Egypt remain a direct reflection of movements in the U.S. dollar against the Egyptian pound, noting that any change in the exchange rate is immediately—and sometimes disproportionately—reflected in the price of 21-karat gold.
He also warned that some market participants may resort to pricing gold based on an exaggerated “precautionary dollar,” potentially driving prices to unjustified levels during the first quarter of 2026.
Gold Between Saving and Speculation
Saad reaffirmed that gold remains a long-term store of value rather than a tool for short-term speculation. He advised those seeking to protect their savings in 2026 to adopt a gradual buying strategy, taking advantage of price pullbacks to build average cost positions while avoiding purchases at market peaks.
International Institutional Forecasts
Forecasts from several major banks and financial institutions point to continued strong demand for gold in 2026. JPMorgan expects prices to approach $5,000 per ounce by the end of the year, while Goldman Sachs sees gold climbing toward $4,900 per ounce. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank projects a trading range between $3,950 and $4,950 per ounce by mid-2026.
Impact on the Local Market
Domestically, global price surges in 2025 were directly reflected in the Egyptian market, with the price of 21-karat gold surpassing EGP 6,000 per gram during the December rally.
High prices further encouraged investors to shift toward bullion bars and gold coins as a hedge against inflation and currency weakness, while temporary pullbacks created opportunities for some market participants to rebuild buying positions at more favorable prices.
Saad concluded that gold markets are entering 2026 with significant upside potential, but also with elevated volatility, underscoring the need for investors and consumers to closely monitor global dollar movements and monetary policies to determine optimal timing for buying or selling.
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