Gold Holds Steady in Egypt as Global Bullion Posts 1.2% Weekly Gains

Gold prices in Egypt’s local market remained stable on Saturday, coinciding with the weekend closure of global exchanges. This comes after bullion recorded weekly gains of about 1.2%, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, signals from the Federal Reserve of continued monetary easing, and escalating geopolitical tensions worldwide, according to a report by the online gold and jewelry trading platform “iSagha.”

Local Stability and Global Upside

Said Imbaby, CEO of iSagha, noted that local prices showed relative stability compared to Friday’s close, with 21-carat gold holding at EGP 4,960 per gram. On the global stage, bullion rose by about $42 over the week, touching an all-time high of $3,707 per ounce on September 17, before closing at $3,685.

Imbaby added that 24-carat gold stood at EGP 5,669 per gram, while 18-carat reached EGP 4,251, and 14-carat was priced at EGP 3,307. The gold pound coin held steady at EGP 39,680.

Friday’s session saw a LE 50 increase in 21-carat gold, opening at EGP 4,910 and ending at EGP 4,960. Globally, the ounce climbed by $38, starting at $3,647 and ending at $3,685.

Central Bank Decisions Put Gold at a Crossroads

It was a week dominated by central bank decisions on interest rates, triggering volatile movements in precious metals markets. Despite the fluctuations, gold secured solid gains, positioning itself at a crossroads: optimism over aggressive rate cuts has faded, replaced by a sharper focus on incoming economic data.

On Friday, gold advanced toward its fifth consecutive weekly gain, as investors digested the Fed’s 25 basis-point rate cut and assessed the policy outlook for the rest of the year.

Although gold prices have surged nearly 40% year-to-date, which some view as excessive, analysts argue the bull market is still in its early stages. They highlight persistent global uncertainty as a driver for ongoing investment demand, with projections suggesting gold could reach $4,000 an ounce by late 2025 or early 2026.

Analysts Eye $4,000 Target

Data showed bullion logged further weekly gains, fueled by record-breaking momentum that briefly pushed prices to $3,707 per ounce right after Wednesday’s Fed decision.

However, the U.S. central bank also warned of persistent inflationary pressures, raising doubts over the pace of future easing. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said labor market risks justified the latest cut, hinting at the possibility of additional reductions at the next two meetings.

Central Banks and Waning Confidence in the Dollar

Analysts expect central banks to continue buying gold as confidence in the U.S. dollar wanes and national debt keeps climbing at an unsustainable pace. They argue that global monetary authorities will steadily diversify reserves away from the dollar, with gold serving as the only viable safe-haven alternative.

U.S. Policy Outlook

The Fed charted a less aggressive easing path than markets had anticipated, pointing to two more cuts this year and another in 2026. Still, some policymakers pushed for bolder moves. Steven Miran, recently appointed by President Trump, voted for a 50 basis-point cut, arguing that interest rates should already be closer to neutral.

By contrast, Kashkari reaffirmed support for the recent cut but warned that if inflation rises alongside labor market strength, the Fed could pause further easing—or even raise rates again if needed.

Market Expectations

Futures markets now price in a 91% probability of another 25 basis-point cut at the Fed’s October 29 meeting. With prices up more than 40% since the start of the year, gold is on track for its strongest annual gain since the late 1970s.

Post-Fed Moves: Record Spike, Then Pullback

Immediately after the Fed’s announcement, gold spiked to a historic high of $3,707, before retreating as Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a cautious tone during his press conference. His remarks briefly boosted the dollar, pulling bullion back by the close.

Powell described the cut as a “risk management measure” in response to a weakening labor market, stressing that decisions would be made “meeting by meeting” based on incoming data.

Updated Economic Projections

The Fed’s revised forecasts show U.S. GDP growth of 1.6% in 2025, 1.8% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027, with core PCE inflation projected at 3.1% this year, 2.6% next year, and a gradual return to the 2% target by 2028.

Shifts in Global Trade: Gold Between the U.S. and Asia

U.S. customs data revealed that Swiss gold exports to the U.S. plunged 99% in August after new tariffs were imposed. However, the White House later reversed the decision in September. In the meantime, China stepped in, tripling its gold imports to 35 tons in August, the highest since May 2024, while shipments to India also increased.

Key Data Ahead

Looking ahead, investors will monitor a packed U.S. economic calendar next week, including S&P Global flash PMIs, durable goods orders, jobless claims, GDP data, and the core CPI index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. Markets also expect a flurry of Fed speeches that could shed more light on the policy path.