Gold Headed to $4,000 in 2026 Despite Potential Temporary Corrections

Economist John Luca confirmed that global gold prices recorded a remarkable surge of nearly 26% in U.S. dollar terms during the first half of 2025. He noted that this performance reflects strong structural demand from major economies and investors seeking safe-haven assets amid escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent inflationary pressures.

uca stated that his forecasts point to an average gold price of $3,675 per ounce by Q4 2025, with the potential to reach $4,000 in Q2 2026. He explained that his analysis highlights continued positive momentum in the market, even though some temporary corrections may occur.

He also projected that gold could average $3,070 per ounce by the end of December 2025, with a yearly average of around $3,220. Some estimates, he added, suggest a year-end price of $3,634 per ounce. However, he cautioned about a potential downside scenario where prices could drop by as much as 12% toward $1,980, if inflationary pressures were to ease suddenly.

Nevertheless, Luca emphasized that gold remains a strategic investment, supported by structural factors such as global currency volatility and ongoing geopolitical risks.

Gold in the Egyptian Market

On the local front, Luca pointed out that gold prices in Egypt have risen about 21% since the start of 2025, driven by strong global demand and political tensions. He expects an additional 10% increase by year-end, with global prices potentially reaching $3,200 per ounce, which would directly impact the Egyptian market.

He stressed that investing in gold in Egypt remains an exceptional opportunity, especially given forecasts for international prices to reach $3,700 in early 2026.

Short-Term Outlook

Regarding the current situation, Luca noted that global prices are hovering near $3,336 per ounce, with expectations of narrow trading in the near term and a possible limited correction down to $3,295. However, he underscored that the broader trend remains positive, supported by inflationary pressures and critical geopolitical events, with prices likely to resume their upward trajectory by the end of August.

He concluded by saying that gold is in a strong position to achieve further gains in the medium term, with any declines likely to remain temporary corrections rather than the beginning of a long-term reversal.