Gold Steadies as Markets Await Fed Chair’s Speech at Jackson Hole

Global gold prices witnessed relative stability on Tuesday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and declining Treasury yields, as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, alongside monitoring geopolitical developments related to the Russia–Ukraine crisis.

In the local market, gold prices rose by about 10 Egyptian pounds compared to Monday’s close, with 21-carat gold reaching 4,540 pounds per gram. Meanwhile, the ounce gained $7 to trade at $3,340.

The 24-carat gram stood at 5,189 pounds, 18-carat at 3,891 pounds, and 14-carat at 3,027 pounds, while the gold pound coin was priced at 36,320 pounds.

This mild rebound followed Monday’s decline of around 10 pounds domestically, when gold opened at 4,540 pounds and closed at 4,530 pounds, while the ounce slipped from $3,336 to $3,333.

Dollar and Treasury Pressure

The modest uptick in gold coincided with a 0.1% decline in the U.S. Dollar Index, which boosted the yellow metal’s appeal to non-U.S. investors. U.S. Treasury yields also showed relative stability, with the 10-year yield standing at 4.324% and the 2-year yield easing to 3.761%. This reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-yielding asset.

Focus on Jackson Hole

Market attention is now fixed on the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes and Powell’s much-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium scheduled for August 21–23. This event is seen as particularly significant, as it is expected to provide fresh signals on future monetary policy, especially regarding inflation and the labor market, directly shaping September’s interest rate expectations.

The CME FedWatch tool indicates an 83% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month.

Geopolitical Risks

On the political front, the White House summit between U.S. President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and key European leaders added another layer of anticipation. Although the talks showed some diplomatic progress, the absence of a concrete ceasefire agreement left uncertainty elevated, supporting gold’s role as a safe-haven asset. Trump also mentioned preliminary talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin over a potential trilateral summit, reaffirming Washington’s commitment to working with European partners on long-term security guarantees for Ukraine.

Bank and Institutional Outlooks

Major financial institutions have raised their gold forecasts. UBS adjusted its targets, projecting the ounce to reach $3,600 by March 2026 and $3,700 by mid-2026, driven by stronger demand from central banks and investment funds. Goldman Sachs maintained its bullish outlook, forecasting $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026.

These projections are underpinned by continued dollar weakness, mounting macroeconomic risks, and the growing role of central banks in boosting gold demand.

U.S. Economic Indicators

Recent U.S. economic data presented a mixed picture: while retail sales were strong, reflecting resilient consumer spending, confidence indicators weakened, with long-term inflation expectations on the rise. This suggests growing caution among American households. Consequently, markets have scaled back expectations for aggressive monetary easing, though a September rate cut remains the most likely scenario.

According to a Reuters poll on August 15, 67 out of 110 economists expect a quarter-point rate cut next month, while 42 predict no change, and only one foresees a half-point cut.

Markets now await tomorrow’s release of the Fed minutes, followed by Powell’s Friday speech at Jackson Hole. Any hints of monetary easing will act as a direct catalyst for gold’s rise, while the yellow metal continues to benefit from global geopolitical uncertainty, maintaining its position as a strategic investment asset in turbulent times.