Gold continues strong gains locally and globally amid geopolitical risks and easing expectations

Gold prices continued their strong rise in local markets and on the global bourse during Tuesday’s trading, driven by escalating trade uncertainty, growing concerns over a potential US government shutdown, and market expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve—factors that have boosted demand for safe-haven assets, according to a report by the iSagha platform.

Saeed Imbaby, Executive Director of iSagha, said local gold prices rose by about EGP 50 during today’s session, with 21-karat gold reaching EGP 6,780 per gram, while global spot prices climbed by around USD 66 to USD 5,067 per ounce.

He added that 24-karat gold recorded about EGP 7,749 per gram, 18-karat gold stood at around EGP 5,811, and the gold pound rose to approximately EGP 54,240.

Globally, gold resumed its upward trajectory, approaching record highs near the USD 5,100 level, supported by persistent uncertainty surrounding US trade policies, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and strong demand from central banks and retail investors. However, the metal struggled to decisively break above the USD 5,100 mark, remaining below its all-time high during the first half of the European trading session.

Expectations of two additional US interest rate cuts in 2026 continue to favor gold, a non-yielding asset, despite a slight uptick in the US dollar as investors reposition ahead of the upcoming two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

US President Donald Trump reignited concerns over volatile trade policy after imposing a 10% tariff on South Korea and issuing threats of steep tariffs on Canada, adding to market uncertainty. Meanwhile, US Senate Democrats have threatened to block funding for the Department of Homeland Security, raising the risk of a partial government shutdown.

Deutsche Bank’s research division highlighted the impact of rising geopolitical volatility on commodity prices, particularly gold, forecasting a move toward USD 6,000 per ounce this year. The bank noted that increased military spending and resource stockpiling are likely to significantly affect gold and crude oil prices, while long-term expansion in government debt expectations supports the case for gold allocation. The report added that accelerated growth in the US and Germany, a slowdown in China, and India’s structural ascent will shape the macroeconomic landscape.

Heightened geopolitical risks stemming from the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war continue to channel investment flows toward safe havens. Alongside a weaker US dollar and dovish Federal Reserve expectations, these factors have pushed gold prices higher for a seventh consecutive session.

Recent political shocks from the Trump administration have undermined confidence in the US dollar in global financial markets. Expectations of two additional rate cuts this year drove the dollar to a four-month low on Monday.

On the data front, the US Census Bureau reported a 5.3% rise in durable goods orders in November, far exceeding expectations of 0.5%. Orders excluding transportation increased by 0.5%, while those excluding defense rose by 6.6%.

Russia has insisted that Ukraine cede the entire Donbas region as part of any agreement to end the war, a proposal firmly rejected by Kyiv. US-brokered peace talks held in Abu Dhabi ended without an agreement on Saturday.

Nevertheless, traders remain cautious ahead of the outcome of the FOMC meeting, due Wednesday, awaiting clearer signals on the future path of interest rate cuts, which will influence the US dollar and gold prices.

Statements by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during the post-meeting press conference could heighten market volatility and impact commodity prices amid continued central-bank buying and record inflows into exchange-traded funds.

China’s central bank extended its gold-buying program for the fourteenth consecutive month in December, while the National Bank of Poland, the Reserve Bank of India, and the Central Bank of Brazil were among the most active buyers in late 2025 and early 2026. In addition, global investment demand for gold via ETFs rose by 25% in 2025, with total holdings increasing to 4,025.4 tonnes from 3,224.2 tonnes in 2024, and total assets under management reaching USD 558.9 billion.