Gold Continues Gains Amid Fed Rate Speculation and Indian Rate Cut

Gold prices in the local market rose during Saturday’s trading, coinciding with the global stock market’s weekly holiday, after the ounce declined by around 0.4% at the end of last week. The markets remain focused on the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting and the future of interest rates, according to a report from Ai Sagha, the gold and jewelry trading platform.

Saeed Embaby, CEO of Ai Sagha, stated that the 21-carat gold gram rose to EGP 5,625, up by approximately EGP 5 compared to yesterday’s close. Meanwhile, the ounce dropped by around $17, ending last week at $4,199. The 24-carat gold gram reached EGP 6,429, the 18-carat gram stood at EGP 4,821, and the gold pound remained stable at EGP 45,000.

Gold Performance in Global Markets

Gold rose during Friday’s North American session and is expected to end the week almost flat above $4,200 per ounce, as market participants prepare for the Fed’s monetary policy meeting next week. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,216 after bouncing off a daily high of $4,259.

Economic Developments and Fed Outlook

The week concluded with the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for September, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The index rose slightly by 0.2% month-on-month and stabilized at 2.8% year-on-year, reflecting a gradual slowdown in underlying inflation. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index rose to 53.3 points, with one-year inflation expectations falling from 4.5% to 4.1% and five-year expectations decreasing from 3.4% to 3.2%.

With these readings, the CME FedWatch Tool shows an 87% probability of a 0.25% rate cut next week, enhancing gold’s attractiveness amid declining real U.S. bond yields.

Global Monetary Policies and Gold Impact

U.S. interest rate expectations have been highly volatile over the past six weeks, with the possibility of a December rate cut returning after stable inflation data and a slowdown in the labor market. This volatility has contributed to fluctuations in gold prices, which recovered from November’s lows near $3,900 per ounce but now face resistance around $4,200.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, keeping the door open for further easing—a move expected to support global commodity and gold demand. China is also expected to maintain a relatively flexible monetary policy with a focus on manufacturing and advanced technology, while gradually supporting domestic consumption, further boosting global demand expectations for gold.

Geopolitical Risks and Market Safe-Haven Demand

Geopolitical uncertainties, including tensions in the Middle East and U.S.–China relations, continue to underpin gold as a safe-haven asset. The unclear path of U.S. monetary policy and global financial risks further support gold, shielding it from short-term market volatility.

Technical Analysis and Forecast

Experts note that gold appears to be establishing a new base around $4,200 per ounce. A rate cut by the Fed or additional easing signals globally could support further gains, while a decline below $4,200 may push prices toward $4,180–$4,160. Breaking above $4,240 could open the path toward $4,300 per ounce.

Gold prices remain supported by anticipated monetary easing from the Fed and other central banks, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and expected global commodity demand. The precious metal continues to hold its position as a secure investment amid economic and market uncertainties.