A major new defense study suggests that the European Union could reduce its military reliance on the US within a decade, with an estimated cost of up to €500 billion, according to leading economists and defense industry experts.
The report, titled Sparta 2.0, was co-authored by German economist Moritz Schularick and four senior figures from industry and policy, arguing that Europe already has the financial and technological capacity to achieve strategic military autonomy.
Schularick, who heads the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, said the main barrier is not funding but political will. He pointed to persistent fragmentation in European defense policy and a strong tendency toward national rather than collective procurement strategies.
The study concludes that Europe could achieve meaningful operational independence within three to five years, while broader strategic autonomy across most military sectors could be reached within five to ten years.
It estimates total costs of €150–200 billion by 2030, rising to around €500 billion by the mid-2030s. The authors argue that this investment could be absorbed within existing defense budget plans if one-third of planned annual increases, around €200 billion across Europe, is redirected toward joint capabilities.
In the report, “Europe” refers to the EU along with the UK and Norway. The projected spending would amount to roughly 0.25% of Europe’s total GDP.
The study was co-authored by senior defense and business leaders, including Airbus chairman René Obermann, KNDS defense group CEO Tom Enders, investor Janina Fürstenberg, and political strategist Nico Lange. The authors caution that cost estimates could vary significantly depending on industrial coordination and procurement efficiency.
A previous Kiel Institute analysis criticized Europe’s fragmented defense
Follow the latest news on Google News
