The Tourism and Aviation Committee of the Egyptian Junior Business Association (EJB) said the number of international arrivals fell 72% in the first 10 months of 2020, a matter which led to the loss of 900 million international tourists between January and October.
According to its annual report on the performance of the tourism sector locally and internationally, the committee pointed out the estimated loss of these declining figures due to the coronavirus crisis is amounted to $935 billion in export revenues from international tourism, which is more than 10 times the loss in 2009 because of the global economic crisis.
In this regard, Mohamed Kaoud, the committee’s head and Egyliere CEO, pointed to expectations that the number of international arrivals would decline by 70% to 75% for the whole of 2020 with 1 billion fewer arrivals and a loss of some $1.1 trillion in international tourism receipts.
“This massive drop in tourism due to the pandemic could result in an economic loss of $2 trillion in the global GDP,” Kaoud stated.
According to Kaoud, Asia and the Pacific, the first region to suffer the impact of the pandemic and the one with the highest level of travel restrictions to date, saw an 82% decrease in arrivals in the first ten months of 2020.
“The Middle East recorded a 73% decline, while Africa saw a 69% drop. International arrivals in both Europe and the Americas declined by 68%.”
The committee’s head referred to the IATA data which showed that international air demand declined 74% in January-October 2020, in line with the decline in international tourist arrivals during the same period.
The International passenger traffic measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs) fell close to 88% year-on-year (y-o-y) in October, a worse performance as compared to previous months amid a spike in new COVID cases. That have caused 85 Billion USD losses in 10 months
Based on STR regional data, the occupancy in October reached 28% in Africa, 31% in Europe, 39% in the Middle East, 43% in Asia and the Pacific and 45% in the Americas.
According to Egypt, its international tourists arrivals in 2019 is 13 million, while in 2020, it was down by 69.5%YTD
Egypt’s tourism revenues hit $13 billion in 2019 and decreased by 67.2% YTD.
Moreover, the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) developed three scenarios for the sector recovery, expecting a rebound in international tourism by the second half of 2021.
The rebound is expected to continue in 2022 as travel conditions normalize and the pandemic is contained globally. However, international tourism could still take 2½ to 4 years to return to 2019 levels.
The recovery times for each scenario are summarized below:
– Scenario 1: recovery in 2½ years (mid-2023)
– Scenario 2: recovery in 3 years (end of 2023)
– Scenario 3: recovery in 4 years (end of 2024)
