Egypt May See Growth Slow to 4.9% Amid Global Pressures, Planning Min. Warns

Egypt’s economic growth could slow to as low as 4.9% if global tensions persist, Minister of Planning and Economic Development Ahmed Rostom said on Saturday, underscoring the challenges facing the country’s economic outlook.

Speaking at a press conference attended by Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, the minister noted that the government’s upcoming fiscal plan has been drafted under exceptionally volatile global conditions, particularly amid sustained pressure from rising energy prices.

Rostom explained that the state’s economic strategy for the next fiscal year is built around more flexible targets, reflecting the uncertainty of the global environment. While Egypt has maintained solid economic momentum so far, external risks continue to weigh on projections.

The economy delivered a strong performance in the first half of the current fiscal year, with growth driven by key productive sectors. The second quarter alone recorded an expansion of 5.3%, supported by tourism, telecommunications, and banking activity.

The government is currently targeting economic growth of around 5.2%, supported by a package of measures aimed at boosting industrial output and sustaining economic activity across sectors.

However, Rostom cautioned that downside risks remain significant. Under less favorable conditions, particularly if global economic and geopolitical tensions persist, growth could ease to between 5.1% and 4.9%.

To counter potential headwinds, the government plans to continue supporting industrial production and encouraging sectoral expansion. These efforts are seen as critical to preserving economic resilience in the face of rising global uncertainty.

The remarks highlight a balancing act for policymakers: maintaining growth momentum domestically while navigating an increasingly complex international landscape shaped by energy market volatility and geopolitical instability.

As global conditions remain fluid, Egypt’s growth trajectory will likely depend on both external developments and the effectiveness of domestic policy responses in sustaining investment and productivity.