Egypt Expects EGP 99.8 Bln Savings from Fuel Price Hikes

Egypt expects to save about 99.8 billion Egyptian pounds ($2.0 billion) in the next fiscal year following recent fuel price increases, according to finance ministry estimates, as the government moves to ease budget pressures and secure additional external financing.

The projections, outlined in the ministry’s fiscal framework, are based on an exchange rate of 49 pounds per U.S. dollar and an oil price of $75 per barrel.

Savings from diesel price increases are estimated at 52.89 billion pounds, while higher prices for cooking gas cylinders are expected to generate 13.3 billion pounds.

Also, gasoline price hikes would contribute around 33.7 billion pounds, including 11.2 billion pounds from 80-octane, 18.8 billion pounds from 92-octane and 3.7 billion pounds from 95-octane fuel. Additional savings of about 33 billion pounds are projected from household natural gas tariffs.

Egypt is also seeking to accelerate the disbursement of international financing worth between $3.5 billion and $4.5 billion, including around $1.5 billion from the European Union, $1.5 billion from the World Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, as well as $1.5 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) .

The finance ministry said it is working to complete several state asset offerings before the end of the current fiscal year, including the sale of stakes in Banque du Caire and Misr Life Insurance, as part of a broader privatization drive.

It also aims to finalize the offering of the Oil Mountain wind power project before the fiscal year-end.

The ministry estimated the price of imported wheat at around $290 per tonne in the upcoming fiscal year.

It warned that exchange rate fluctuations remain a key risk, noting that each one-pound depreciation against the dollar adds more than 1 billion pounds to fiscal costs. The impact could rise to 3 billion pounds if the dollar reaches 49 pounds, 4 billion pounds at 50 pounds, 5 billion pounds at 51 pounds and up to 7 billion pounds at 52 pounds.

Meanwhile, the government plans to increase proceeds from its retail “citizen bonds” program to 30 billion pounds by the end of April, up from 5.6 billion pounds currently, as it seeks to diversify funding sources.