EGP 335 Losses in April... Gold Retains Gains of EGP 1,125 Since the Start of 2026

Gold prices in the Egyptian local markets witnessed a notable decline during April 2026, affected by a wide wave of global economic pressures. These included escalating geopolitical tensions related to the US-Iranian war, rising energy prices, and climbing inflation rates, alongside growing expectations that the US Federal Reserve will keep interest rates high for a longer period. This supported the strength of the dollar and reduced the attractiveness of gold in the short term, according to a report by the «Marsad Al Dahab» for Economic Studies.

The «Marsad Al Dahab» for Economic Studies stated that gold prices declined during April by 4.6%, approximately EGP 335. The price of a 21-karat gold gram opened trading at the level of EGP 7,290, before dropping to EGP 6,830 on April 29 as the lowest monthly level, then ending transactions at EGP 6,955 per gram. Additionally, 24-karat recorded about EGP 7,949, and 18-karat gold reached EGP 5,961, while the price of the gold pound reached EGP 55,640.

On the global front, the ounce declined by 1% during the month, with a loss amounting to $51, after opening trades at $4,668. It recorded a monthly peak at $4,790, then fell to $4,514, before closing at $4,617 per ounce.

Despite this monthly decline, gold still maintains a strong annual performance, as local prices rose by about EGP 1,125 per gram from the beginning of 2026 until the end of April. 21-karat gold began the year at EGP 5,830, then rose to its highest historical level in the local market at EGP 7,600 per gram on March 2, before declining relatively by the end of April to EGP 6,955. Globally, the ounce has risen by about $299 since the turn of the year, after opening at $4,318, and recorded an unprecedented historical level at $5,626 on January 29, before stabilizing near $4,617 by the end of the month.

The report indicates that gold fluctuations during April were directly linked to the state of instability in international and local markets, especially with sharp movements in the dollar exchange rate within Egypt. The dollar began the month at EGP 54.65, then declined to EGP 51.78 in mid-April, before rising again near the level of EGP 54 by the end of the month, which was clearly reflected in local gold pricing.

The global energy crisis also played a major role in pressuring gold, in light of continued supply disruptions resulting from tensions in the Gulf region and increasing fears regarding the repercussions of closing the Strait of Hormuz on trade and energy movement. These developments prompted the World Bank to forecast a 24% rise in global energy prices during 2026, which may represent the largest annual increase since the crisis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This implies additional inflationary pressures that may force central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, to maintain a restrictive monetary policy, thereby reducing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset.

In this context, the US Federal Reserve's decision in its meeting on April 29 to keep interest rates between 3.50% and 3.75% reinforced this vision, especially with the emergence of divisions within the Open Market Committee regarding the timing of the shift toward monetary easing. Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell denied an imminent move toward an additional rate hike, the persistence of inflation above the official target of 2% keeps markets in a state of anticipation.

Economically, US GDP data showed the economy grew by 2% during the first quarter of 2026, compared to 0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting continued economic expansion, albeit at a slower pace than the 2.2% expectations. Additionally, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index recorded a monthly increase of 0.7%, while core inflation remained at 3.2% on an annual basis, reflecting continued price pressures without a full inflationary explosion, but also not providing the Fed enough room for a rapid interest rate cut.

Despite current pressures, major financial institutions maintain a strong positive outlook toward gold in the long term. JPMorgan maintains a price target of $6,300 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by central bank purchases and a gradual shift away from the dollar as a reserve currency. Similarly, estimates from Wells Fargo and Deutsche Bank range between $6,000 and $6,300, while the average forecast in a Reuters poll is around $4,746, indicating that markets may have already priced in a large part of the upcoming monetary easing cycle.

The «Marsad Al Dahab» confirms that the current declines appear temporary, given the continued fundamental factors supporting gold in the long term. These include central bank purchases, escalating geopolitical risks, and persistent inflationary pressures, alongside the trend of investors turning toward gold as a safe haven.