Economist Osama Zeraa said that gold’s rise to the $4,600-per-ounce level in the first weeks of the year has exceeded the expectations of most investment banks, which had anticipated such levels in the second half of 2026 or even toward year-end. This, he noted, raises questions about the remaining price trajectory in the coming period.
In a televised interview with Al Arabiya, Zeraa pointed out that January has historically been one of the strongest months for gold performance. Over the past ten years, gold has posted gains in January about 70% of the time, with average returns ranging between 3% and 5%, even when measured over 15- or 20-year periods.
He added that the start of 2026 has been marked by rapid and unexpected political developments, most notably tensions within the U.S. political landscape, investigations involving the Federal Reserve Chair, and statements and positions taken by U.S. President Donald Trump on sensitive geopolitical issues such as Greenland, Venezuela, and Iran. These factors, he said, have intensified confusion and uncertainty in global markets.
Zeraa explained that this combination of factors has pushed gold prices to new record highs, noting that expectations still point to gold advancing toward the $4,800–$4,900 per ounce range in the coming period, with strong potential to test the $5,000 level. This outlook is particularly likely if geopolitical or monetary conditions continue to deteriorate, or if interest rate cuts persist alongside expanded gold purchases by central banks.
Addressing whether potential political breakthroughs could pressure gold prices, Zeraa said that structural demand for gold has changed fundamentally in recent years. He noted that central bank purchases have jumped from around 17 tons annually prior to 2022 to current expectations approaching 70 tons, representing a major shift in the structure of global demand.
He added that geopolitical breakthroughs, such as a potential agreement between Russia and Ukraine, would not necessarily lead to increased gold supply. Russian gold, he explained, is already available in global markets through various channels, particularly with the growing role of China and BRICS countries in absorbing supply.
Zeraa emphasized that global gold production currently ranges between 3,900 and 4,200 tons per year, while demand frequently exceeds supply, supporting the continuation of the upward trend over the medium and long term.
He noted that any potential price pullbacks, should they occur, would likely be driven by short-term speculative activity and could range between $100 and $150 per ounce. Such corrections, he said, would not reflect gold’s fair value given rising central bank and institutional demand and mounting concerns in global markets.
Zeraa cited estimates from global banks such as Deutsche Bank, which suggest that any political breakthrough between Russia and Ukraine could trigger a temporary decline in gold prices of around 1.5% to 3% before the yellow metal resumes its upward trend. He stressed that markets have not yet reached their peak, whether for gold or silver.
He added that his forecasts point to gold reaching $4,900 during 2026, with a realistic chance of surpassing $5,000 if current geopolitical and monetary conditions persist.
Regarding silver, Zeraa said it remains relatively undervalued, projecting strong gains that could push prices toward $135 per ounce. However, he cautioned that moving beyond such levels could place pressure on certain industrial sectors, particularly solar energy, due to rising production costs.
On investment allocation between gold and silver, Zeraa stressed the importance of diversification, arguing that balance is the optimal approach. He suggested allocating investments evenly, with 50% in gold and 50% in silver, rather than overconcentrating in one metal at the expense of the other.
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