As 2026 gets underway, new projections issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have raised serious concerns about a continued rise in global temperatures, potentially pushing international climate agreements and environmental mitigation strategies to a critical test, according to Argentina’s Infobae newspaper.
International estimates suggest that 2026 is likely to rank among the hottest years since modern temperature records began.
The United Nations attributes this rise primarily to human activity, particularly the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane.
These emissions result largely from the use of fossil fuels in transportation, heating, and industrial activity, intensifying global warming and highlighting the growing challenges facing humanity in limiting its harmful effects.
This scenario represents a major test for countries’ commitments under the Paris Climate Agreement, which aims to keep global temperature increases within defined limits.
Recent studies indicate a sustained rise in average global temperatures, with projections suggesting that the global mean temperature in 2026 could be about 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels (1850–1900), within a possible range of 1.34°C to 1.58°C.
This projected increase comes dangerously close to the record of 1.55°C recorded in 2024, the highest level since data collection began.
Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Prediction at ECMWF, noted that each of the past three years has already exceeded the 1.4°C threshold, and 2026 is expected to become the fourth consecutive year to do so.
This trend underscores how rapidly the world is approaching the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Agreement.
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