Baghdad in Political Intensive Care: Tehran Stalls the Iraqi Clock to Export Repression Across Borders

Over the past week, specifically since January 14, the Iraqi political landscape has entered a state of deliberate paralysis. This stagnation transcends traditional disputes over the distribution of government roles following the November 2025 elections. What is unfolding in Baghdad today is not a symptom of internal incapacity, but rather a strategic directive issued from the "Spider’s Web" in Tehran. The objective is to freeze constitutional life in Iraq, transforming the country into an open backyard for managing the suppression of the ongoing Iranian uprising.

Field data monitored over the last seven days indicates that the Velayat-e Faqih regime, currently facing its most significant existential challenge in decades due to nationwide protests, has issued strict instructions to its proxies within the "Coordination Framework." These orders demand the obstruction of any path leading to the appointment of a new Prime Minister with full executive powers. The goal of this disruption—which became evident after the failure of negotiation sessions earlier this week—is to keep the executive branch in Baghdad in a fragile "caretaker" status. This state of limbo prevents the Iraqi state from securing its borders and grants militias absolute freedom of movement.

Perhaps the most alarming development this week is the intelligence and field reports revealing an unprecedented flow of Iraqi militia elements into Iran. Informed sources have tracked the crossing of approximately 5,000 members of specific armed factions—notably Kata'ib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba—through the southern Shalamcheh and central Munziriyah border crossings over the past 72 hours. These movements have been conducted under the guise of "religious visits" or logistical support convoys. However, these forces were not deployed for tourism; they were urgently summoned to participate in the brutal crackdown on popular protests in the provinces of Khuzestan and Kermanshah. This move comes as the Iranian regime's own security forces show signs of exhaustion and fragmentation in the face of the protesters' persistence.

This tactic exposes the deep structural vulnerabilities of the Velayat-e Faqih regime. It no longer trusts its domestic security apparatus alone and has resorted to importing "ideological mercenaries" from Iraq to ensure its survival. To facilitate this, the political process in Baghdad had to be sabotaged. A strong and stable Iraqi Prime Minister might be compelled—under pressure from the international community, the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) diplomatic efforts, or the Iraqi street—to close the borders to these suspicious movements or restrict the leaders of factions who operate a joint command center between Baghdad and Tehran.

During the past few days, the rhetoric of these militia leaders has grown increasingly hostile toward any Iraqi voice calling for the expedited formation of a government free from foreign dictates. The capital, Baghdad, has witnessed unjustified military mobilizations by certain factions in strategic areas. This serves as a clear message of intimidation to political rivals: "The priority now is not the government of Iraq, but the survival of the regime in Tehran."

Tehran’s strategy of "creative chaos" in Iraq today is a double-edged sword. While it may temporarily succeed in using Iraqi territory and human resources as a reserve tank to suppress its own people, it is simultaneously fueling a simmering rage within the Iraqi public. Iraqis increasingly view their country as a hostage to the whims of a collapsing regime. Linking the fate of the Iraqi government to the outcomes of repression in the streets of Tehran is definitive proof that Iraq remains politically occupied. It underscores that the battle to liberate Baghdad from Iranian influence is the other side of the coin of the Iranian people's struggle to topple the religious dictatorship.

In conclusion, the events of this week confirm that the clerical regime has reached a stage of "security bankruptcy." It is forced to burn its political capital in Iraq and disable its constitutional institutions simply to withdraw a few thousand gunmen to protect its interests in Tehran. This is not a strategy of strength, but a maneuver of desperation by a regime that realizes its hour is approaching. Its alleged stability was nothing more than an illusion, now being shattered by the cries of those seeking freedom in both Iran and Iraq.